PATRIOT Whacked

A bit of good news for a change:

Patriot Act provision ruled unconstitutional
Reuters News Service

NEW YORK -- Part of the Patriot Act, a central plank of the Bush Administration's war on terror, was ruled unconstitutional by a federal judge today.

U.S. District Judge Victor Marreo ruled in favor of the American Civil Liberties Union, which challenged the power the FBI has to demand confidential financial records from companies as part of terrorism investigations.

The ruling was the latest blow to the Bush administration's anti-terrorism policies.

In June, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that terror suspects being held in places like Guantanamo Bay can use the American judicial system to challenge their confinement. That ruling was a defeat for the president's assertion of sweeping powers to hold "enemy combatants" indefinitely after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The ACLU sued the Department of Justice, arguing that part of the Patriot legislation violated the constitution because it authorizes the FBI to force disclosure of sensitive information without adequate safeguards.

The judge agreed, stating that the provision "effectively bars or substantially deters any judicial challenge."

Under the provision, the FBI did not have to show a judge a compelling need for the records and it did not have to specify any process that would allow a recipient to fight the demand for confidential information.

Now that's good news!

An aside: somewhere between October 2001 and today, the name of the act morphed from PATRIOT (an acronym; don't ask me to expand it) to Patriot (formerly a designation for people who passionately loved their country and took risks to defend it). The Bad Guys definitely won the battle of language on this one.

Steve
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Iraq And Ruin, Again

This is not a surprise, but I am surprised it came out before elections:

Bush ignored warnings on Iraq insurgency threat
before invasion
Intelligence suggested country faced years of tumult

Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington
Wednesday September 29, 2004
The Guardian

The Bush administration disregarded intelligence reports two months before the invasion of Iraq which warned that a war could unleash a violent insurgency and rising anti-US sentiment in the Middle East, it emerged yesterday.

The warning, delivered in two classified reports to the White House in January 2003, was prepared by the National Intelligence Council, the same advisory board that warned the Bush administration last month that the violence in Iraq could descend into a civil war.

That forecast radically departs from George Bush's upbeat assertions that the situation is improving in Iraq, and he initially dismissed the assessment as a "guess".

The White House spokesman, Scott McClellan, suggested the assessment was the work of "handwringers".

The revelation yesterday that the White House was similarly cavalier about prewar warnings could hurt Mr Bush in the run-up to tomorrow's presidential debate, which is focused on foreign policy.

     ...

First, why is this item so hard to find in the American press? Second, yes, I confess... I'm a handwringer. I have good and sufficient reason. If you're not a handwringer, you haven't sufficiently contemplated the people in charge right now.

Steve
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Over A Barrel -- DOGGEREL!

Crude oil prices briefly exceed $50 a barrel (see the post below), and OPEC's president is talking about their powerlessness to stop a resulting global recession as oil prices continue to climb. Do you think perhaps Bush could have avoided this? Say, for example, by supporting some alternative energy sources, or not destabilizing Iraq, or ...

Over Fifty Bucks
And
Over A Barrel

You say it's not about the oil? It's fifty bucks a barrel. Your fantasy I hate to spoil: It's fifty bucks a barrel.     You only want to make a buck?     Well great; I wish you lots of luck,     But don't expect that oil is stuck At fifty bucks a barrel. You'd think that something's got to give At sixty bucks a barrel. But wait... we've no alternative But sixty bucks a barrel.     Not solar, wind, nor biomass,     Nor better mileage for your gas,     While Bush rules, nothing saves your ass From sixty bucks a barrel. You cannot feed your family: A hundred bucks a barrel. You cannot get from A to B: A hundred bucks a barrel.     Our lives, our troops, our souls are thin,     As Bush makes wars no one could win.     And Halliburton rakes it in... A hundred bucks a barrel. Your hi-tech world goes down the tubes: A thousand bucks a barrel. Don't sit there like a bunch of rubes! A thousand bucks a barrel.     It's useless just to sit and pout...     Do something, while you still have clout!     It's time to VOTE THE BASTARDS OUT! Hand THEM the bloody barrel!

Steve Bates

Steve
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Fifty Bucks A Barrel

I noticed the predecessor of this article this morning...

Sept. 28, 2004, 2:45PM
Crude tries out $50 a barrel -- closes at $49.64
Reuters News Service

NEW YORK - Oil prices raced to new record highs above $50 today, despite a pledge by OPEC producer Saudi Arabia to increase production, as rebel threats against Nigerian oil facilities threatened to inflict further strain on global supplies.

U.S. light crude touched a high of $50.47 a barrel before settling at $49.64, up 26 cents on the day. London's Brent crude set a new peak at $46.80 a barrel and ended at $46.45, up 52 cents.

     ...

"Fifty-dollar oil is just another stop on the road to much higher crude prices," said Peter Schiff, president of asset managers Euro Pacific Capital, which oversees $350 million.

Schiff sees the current price spike topping off at $55 to $60 a barrel.

     ...

You think so? Why should it stop at $60?

What I didn't notice this morning was this article (link provided by The Fulcrum):

September 28, 2004
Oil prices to 'cause global recession'
By Steven Downes, Times Online

Purnomo Yusgiantoro, the president of Opec, the Organisation of Oil Producing Countries, today admitted that the cartel was powerless to halt spiralling oil costs, as the price per barrel broke through the $50 mark in New York overnight and in Asian deals earlier today.

The Indonesia official, reacting to the latest record oil prices, warned that constantly rising oil prices could bring about a global economic recession.

"Right now, Opec cannot do anything and the high oil price can cause a recession," he was reported as saying by AFP in Jakarta.

Mr Yusgiantoro said he had asked for data from Opec headquarters in Vienna to assess the impact of the latest rises. He blamed the price spike on unrest in Nigera and ongoing uncertainties over

Russian oil firm Yukos. "Now the problem is with Nigeria and Russia. We are constantly communicating with our friends in Opec," he said.

     ...

"Opec can still raise supply ... we still have a spare capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day until the end of the year," he said.

"We want to give an assurance to the world oil market that we have enough oil."

But he also warned that heightened output may not bring down prices. Two weeks ago, at its meeting in Vienna, Opec declared it was raising its official production ceiling by one million barrels to 27 million barrels per day from November 1, but the decision has failed to lower prices.

     ...

It's a good thing the oil companies are offshoring a lot of their software development work. Otherwise, as short of work as I've been at times this past year, I might be tempted to pursue a contract with one of my old clients in the "awl bidness," only to find that I could not afford the extended daily commute to their plants and offices on the extremes of Houston's freeway system.

Seriously, I have no expertise in the economic impact of oil on the international economy, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist (or an oil economist) to understand the words "global recession" coming from the mouth of the head of OPEC. And it strikes me that the U.S. is in the worst position of any industrialized nation to protect itself: thanks to Bush and friends, we have no "plan B," and we are abjectly dependent for our economic stability... such as it is... on cheap oil from foreign sources. And the Bushies' attempt to paper over the problem by, um, "harvesting" oil from Iraq? Well, gosh, that didn't work too well, did it? It's certainly easier to blow up a pipeline than to build one. And what about our reserves, the ones Bush recently tapped (warning... very high popup count!), supposedly in the name of Hurricane Ivan relief? Well, what about them? How long will that trick continue to work, if Bush's election disaster relief is effective?

I cannot imagine how these very same ideologues think they are going to get through the next decade. I'm constantly reminded of the old joke that there are three kinds of people in the world, those who can count, and those who can't.

Steve
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2000 All Over Again

Many have said they're preparing to steal it in Florida again this year. When Jimmy Carter says it, you have to believe him:

Still Seeking a Fair Florida Vote
By Jimmy Carter
Monday, September 27, 2004; Page A19

After the debacle in Florida four years ago, former president Gerald Ford and I were asked to lead a blue-ribbon commission to recommend changes in the American electoral process. After months of concerted effort by a dedicated and bipartisan group of experts, we presented unanimous recommendations to the president and Congress. The government responded with the Help America Vote Act of October 2002. Unfortunately, however, many of the act's key provisions have not been implemented because of inadequate funding or political disputes.

The disturbing fact is that a repetition of the problems of 2000 now seems likely, even as many other nations are conducting elections that are internationally certified to be transparent, honest and fair.

     ...

     ... some basic international requirements for a fair election are missing in Florida.

The most significant of these requirements are:

• A nonpartisan electoral commission or a trusted and nonpartisan official who will be responsible for organizing and conducting the electoral process before, during and after the actual voting takes place. Although rarely perfect in their objectivity, such top administrators are at least subject to public scrutiny and responsible for the integrity of their decisions. Florida voting officials have proved to be highly partisan, brazenly violating a basic need for an unbiased and universally trusted authority to manage all elements of the electoral process.
• Uniformity in voting procedures, so that all citizens, regardless of their social or financial status, have equal assurance that their votes are cast in the same way and will be tabulated with equal accuracy. Modern technology is already in use that makes electronic voting possible, with accurate and almost immediate tabulation and with paper ballot printouts so all voters can have confidence in the integrity of the process. There is no reason these proven techniques, used overseas and in some U.S. states, could not be used in Florida.

     ...

Carter goes on to name names: Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris in 2000; her successor, Glenda Hood in 2004. Both of them had direct ties to Bush's campaign in 2000. Finally, Carter concludes the obvious:

It is unconscionable to perpetuate fraudulent or biased electoral practices in any nation. It is especially objectionable among us Americans, who have prided ourselves on setting a global example for pure democracy. With reforms unlikely at this late stage of the election, perhaps the only recourse will be to focus maximum public scrutiny on the suspicious process in Florida.

Maximum public scrutiny... right. In 2000, we had the DeLay-staffed "Brooks Brothers riot" disrupting the counting of dimpled chads. Republican violence substituted for public scrutiny. This year, I think we should have our very own Scrutiny Hooligans instead.

Steve
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One Picture - UPDATED

I admit it... when the source is Billmon, I generally prefer the thousand words. But Billmon's words have been scarce lately, and I must say, this one picture is worth a lot. I hope this is a sign that Billmon has re-entered the arena. Warning: put down your coffee cup before you view the graphic.

UPDATE: It looks like I'm wrong. Billmon's op-ed in the L.A. Times (subscription and ferocious number of popups) makes it clear that he is still soured on the concept of blogging, and is convinced it is, or is about to be, co-opted by mainstream press and advertisers. See TalkLeft for a bit of a counter-argument.

<snark> I'm certain this will all be cleared up in a few days, and we can quit worrying about Billmon and TalkLeft and go back to discussing whether anyone may ethically accept money for blogging. </snark>

UPDATE: Mad Kane nails it, as usual... in rhyme, as usual. She also notes (on the comment thread of this post) that no one can compromise their ethics too much by accepting they pay they get for an op-ed!

Steve
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Things Go In Cycles

Or on them. I went somewhere on my bicycle yesterday for the first time in many months. By the time I pumped the tires and removed the toe clips (which are no longer an option since I broke my foot in June), I felt as if I'd already had a workout. Then I rode to a local park, about a mile out and a mile back (maybe less), and wondered afterward at the fact that somehow I was still alive. I wasn't struggling to breathe, or aching terribly, or anything like that, but just moving the bike forward took a lot more effort than I remembered from last time. Since this ride I have not recovered my energy and focus. I did not attempt a repeat performance today. It's going to be a long road back to cycling condition... a road taken in a lot of short segments.

---

To all of you in the path of Hurricane (now Tropical Storm) Jeanne, I'm thinking of you and hoping for the best. A suggestion to Jeb Bush... if you want this to stop, maybe you should make an offering to the hurricane gods. Perhaps if you resigned and promised not to run again, or maybe simply committed irrevocably to running an honest election this November...

Steve
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Cheap, Kid-Hating Liars

Breathtaking mendacity and cruelty on Bush's part:

Words, Actions at Odds on Children's Health Care
Administration Poised to Take Back $1.1 Billion in
Unspent Funds Despite Bush's Convention Vow

     ...

In his convention address in New York, President Bush announced a new $1 billion initiative to enroll "millions of poor children" in two popular government health programs. But next week, the Bush administration plans to return $1.1 billion in unspent children's health funds to the U.S. Treasury, making his convention promise a financial wash at best.

The loss of $1.1 billion in federal money means six states participating in the State Children's Health Insurance Program face budget shortfalls in 2005; it is enough money to provide health coverage for 750,000 uninsured youngsters nationwide, according to two new analyses by advocacy organizations.

"If the Bush administration really cared about covering uninsured children, one of the things it could do immediately is make sure this $1 billion is used for SCHIP," said Debra Ness, president of the National Partnership for Women and Families. "The irony is this president talks constantly about not leaving any child behind and how he is going to cover so many kids. In truth, that ended up being false. He's just moving money around."

     ...

Seven. Hundred. Fifty. Thousand. Uninsured. Youngsters. Which part of that does Bush not understand?

Of course he understands all of it. This is part of his pattern, along with NCLB education funds, international AIDS funds, etc., etc., ad nauseam.

A bit of background, and Bush's alleged policy:

     ...

SCHIP, created in 1997, is a federal-state initiative widely popular among public officials and the private sector that provides $40 billion in health care matching funds to states over 10 years. Despite its popularity, the most recent Census Bureau data show that 8.4 million American children remain uninsured, prompting Bush to declare his desire to enroll many more in SCHIP.

"America's children must have a healthy start in life," he said in his convention speech. "In a new term, we will lead an aggressive effort to enroll millions of poor children who are eligible but not signed up for the government's health insurance programs. We will not allow a lack of attention, or information, to stand between these children and the health care they need."

     ...

Ignore for the moment the odious reference to a new term, and the fractured syntax: the message is a valid one. Kids do need a healthy start in life, and adequate medical coverage is essential to that healthy start. Duh! Who could disagree with that, in principle at least.

But that's as far as Bush ever goes. He makes a big, public speech, garners all the political points he possibly can, and then defunds the project when the public is no longer watching.

Bush is a cheap, kid-hating liar. I have no evidence that he is illegitimate, or that he has performed any untoward acts with Bar; if I did, I'd add a couple of adjectives. But he is, at the very least, a cheap, kid-hating liar.

Steve
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Shockwave And Awe

Via Pharyngula, we found a splendid (though very loud) Flash presentation that pretty well says it all about our preznit. Better turn the sound down a bit...

Steve
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Cat And Doggerelist

Sufi is 17 years old, and while he doesn't live with me, our relationship goes way back. He is very affectionate, if somewhat slow-moving, but nothing can persuade him to face a camera when there is any living creature paying him attention. In this case, he is about to offer a serious consultation on the use of some graphics software on my friend's laptop. Sufi doesn't realize yet that such instruction is wasted on me; I have no talent in that field. Fortunately, he loves me anyway.

Steve
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What If America Were Iraq?

What if life in America were like life in postwar (sic) Iraq?

Juan Cole provides us a terrifying description. (You may have to scroll down; Cole's permalinks are not entirely reliable at the moment.) Here's Cole:

President Bush said Tuesday that the Iraqis are refuting the pessimists and implied that things are improving in that country.

What would America look like if it were in Iraq's current situation? The population of the US is over 11 times that of Iraq, so a lot of statistics would have to be multiplied by that number.

Thus, violence killed 300 Iraqis last week, the equivalent proportionately of 3,300 Americans. What if 3,300 Americans had died in car bombings, grenade and rocket attacks, machine gun spray, and aerial bombardment in the last week? That is a number greater than the deaths on September 11, and if America were Iraq, it would be an ongoing, weekly or monthly toll.

And what if those deaths occurred all over the country, including in the capital of Washington, DC, but mainly above the Mason Dixon line, in Boston, Minneapolis, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco?

What if the grounds of the White House and the government buildings near the Mall were constantly taking mortar fire? What if almost nobody in the State Department at Foggy Bottom, the White House, or the Pentagon dared venture out of their buildings, and considered it dangerous to go over to Crystal City or Alexandria?

     ...

And so on. Somehow, all of Bush's platitudes about turning corners and democracy on the march take on a different meaning when viewed in that light. If Bush is elected or selected this year, and if this is what he means by democracy, we're in for some truly scary times, scarier even than what we have experienced to date.

On a related matter, David Neiwert, beginning a six-part series on the conservative movement (which he distinguishes from conservatism as a sociopolitical philosophy, as do I), discusses the state of "pseudo-fascism" in which we find ourselves at present. Neiwert, who recently literally wrote the book on fascism, asserts that we are in the second stage of a typical historical progression toward actual fascism:

Call it Pseudo Fascism. Or, if you like, Fascism Lite. Happy-Face Fascism. Postmodern Fascism. But there is little doubt anymore why the shape of the "conservative movement" in the 21st century is so familiar and disturbing: Its architecture, its entire structure, has morphed into a not-so-faint hologram of 20th-century fascism.

I'll let Neiwert make his own all-too-persuasive argument for that; he enumerates the differences between our current state and actual fascism, then investigates what analogies are valid (or not) between the conservative movement and possible actual fascism here. What interests me most is this passage:

All that is needed for a full manifestation of American fascism, at this point, is for a genuine crisis of democracy to erupt. And if that occurs, it is almost inevitable that the differences between fascism and pseudo-fascism will vanish.

What better way to precipitate a crisis of democracy than a failed or postponed election, accompanied by, or followed by, violence in the streets. From the Bush administration's negligence in Iraq, coupled with its Brooks Brothers riot in sElection 2000, it is clear that Bush and his cabal know just how to do that. It is up to us to insist that American democracy not be rerouted into the travesty of democracy Bush has perpetrated in Iraq.

---

The skies have a few clouds now, but the breeze is still minimal. The 10:00 A.M. NHC map appears to predict landfall up the coast from here, around the Texas-Louisiana border. Houston may get some weather from this, but compared to what Ivan has done elsewhere, Son of Ivan still looks less than threatening. It may be hubris to say that; a storm that disorganized may yet turn on us. Meanwhile, best of luck to the coastal residents east of us; stay safe.

Steve
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Ivan Idea...

It's a bit after 10:00 A.M. The sun is shining, there's not a cloud in the sky, and there is no wind at all. The forecast is for heavy rain later today and this evening. Behold, Son of Ivan... it reminds me of another incompetent son of a powerful father. Still, Junior could wreak a lot of havoc during his rain (sic). And with winds now up to 60 mph, Junior is at least a bit of a blowhard. I can't help hoping that the analogy extends, and Junior is a no-show...

I'll have some political blogging later, presuming my power and net connection hold up.

Steve
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Chicago, Chicago...

I used to think it was my kind of town, but not anymore...

CHICAGO, Sept. 20 - A highly advanced system of video surveillance that Chicago officials plan to install by 2006 will make people here some of the most closely observed in the world. Mayor Richard M. Daley says it will also make them much safer.

"Cameras are the equivalent of hundreds of sets of eyes," Mr. Daley said when he unveiled the new project this month. "They're the next best thing to having police officers stationed at every potential trouble spot."

Police specialists here can already monitor live footage from about 2,000 surveillance cameras around the city, so the addition of 250 cameras under the mayor's new plan is not a great jump. The way these cameras will be used, however, is an extraordinary technological leap.

Sophisticated new computer programs will immediately alert the police whenever anyone viewed by any of the cameras placed at buildings and other structures considered terrorist targets wanders aimlessly in circles, lingers outside a public building, pulls a car onto the shoulder of a highway, or leaves a package and walks away from it. Images of those people will be highlighted in color at the city's central monitoring station, allowing dispatchers to send police officers to the scene immediately.

     ...

Wandering aimlessly in circles is one of my favorite daily activities. I guess my dream of moving someday to the City of Big Brother Broad Shoulders is doomed now.

(Via Needlenose.)

Steve
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Kuffner Provides TRMPAC Update

We can always depend on Charles Kuffner to keep us informed on the latest political events in Texas. Today, he has many new links and clips about the indictments of TRMPAC officials and their impact on Tom DeLay.

Some are saying that while this is clearly bad news for DeLay, he may yet not be indicted. Why did the Travis County grand jury not indict DeLay? Duh... he doesn't live in Travis County, and he doesn't live out of state, so they don't have jurisdiction to do so. Still, this is sure to put pressure on the House ethics committee, currently deadlocked along partisan lines, to order an investigation as requested by Rep. Chris Bell (see my earlier post).

Spiralsands remarked in a comment on yesterday's post that we should apply the classic Clinton test here, i.e., ask ourselves what would be happening today if these accusations had been leveled against Bill Clinton. Well, you know the answer to that one.

Steve
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Wednesday Cat Blogging

Not that kind of cat... this kind of Cat:

WASHINGTON - A London-to-Washington flight was diverted to Maine when it was discovered that passenger Yusuf Islam - formerly known as singer Cat Stevens - was on a government watch list and barred from entering the country.

United Airlines Flight 919 was en route to Dulles International Airport when the match was made Tuesday between a passenger and a name on the watch list, said Nico Melendez, a spokesman for the Transportation Security Administration.

The plane was met by federal agents at Maine's Bangor International Airport around 3 p.m., Melendez said.

Homeland Security Department spokesman Dennis Murphy identified the passenger as Islam. "He was interviewed and denied admission to the United States on national security grounds," Murphy said.

He said Islam would be put on the first available flight out of the country Wednesday.

Officials had no details about why the peace activist might be considered a risk to the United States. Islam had visited New York in May for a charity event and to promote a DVD of his 1976 MajiKat tour.

     ...

Now, don't you feel safer?

(Via Josh Marshall.)

Steve
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TRMPAC Indictments

From the Houston Chronicle, found via Off the Kuff:

AUSTIN - A Travis County grand jury today returned 32 indictments related to Republican political fund-raising activity in 2002, including charges against three top aides to U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

The grand jury returned indictments against DeLay political aide Jim Ellis and fund-raiser Warren RoBold and John Colyandro, who was executive director of DeLay's political action committee Texans for a Republican Majority. Colyandro faces 14 charges, RoBold was named in nine charges, and Ellis was named in one.

     ...

Whether this will have any effect on Rep. Chris Bell's complaint against DeLay to the House ethics committee, currently wrapped up in what appears to be purely partisan, uh, delay, I don't know. But this cannot be good for DeLay as he heads into an election. Here's Rep. Bell's statement, as posted on his email list:

After today's felony indictments of John Colyandro, Jim Ellis and other key DeLay associates, the Ethics Committee has no option but to move forward with a full investigation into Mr. DeLay on all three counts of the complaint filed against him.

The Ethics Committee has already taken 90 days to review the information and has yet to take action.

These indictments are clear indication that the Ethics complaint against Mr. DeLay is substantive and extremely serious. Anything less than a full investigation would signify a failure on the part of the Committee to fulfill their responsibility to protect the integrity of the House.

Please read Kuff's post for more details; as always, he has plenty of them. Perhaps DeLay feels confident he has plausible deniability... but so did Nixon, and look what happened to him. Stay tuned!

Steve
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Kerry Speaks Truth

Democrats and others concerned for the survival of our republic... please read what John Kerry has to say, and take heart. Kerry deconstructs Bush's actions in Iraq... I won't dignify them with the word "policies" ... and he doesn't hold back. On top of that, Kerry discusses his own plan for Iraq... a real plan, something Bush has never had, as he wings it, day by day, dragging us along with him toward his "catastrophic success."

There is too much good material in Kerry's speech to select quotes: you need to read the whole thing. So does Bush, with an eye toward possible remedies for the terrible situation we find ourselves in in Iraq. But we all know how likely that is. If Bush and his henchmen read this at all, it will be with an eye toward discussing exactly how to lie about it. They know that a public awakening to the truth about Iraq would spell the end of the road for them.

As several have said, Kerry now needs to make this speech again and again, at least once a day, between now and Election Day. It could be very effective, and it has the significant advantage of being solidly rooted in truth.

Steve
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Working

I'll be working at a client's office today, and I doubt I'll post much. Meanwhile, a miscellany...

• tristero is on fire this week. Go read everything he's written recently. Clearly he has absorbed the message that we must take it straight to Bush and hammer him for all he's worth. As always, tristero writes and reasons well. (We've always known tristero is a well-respected composer; last week, I found some samples of his music online... I don't want to blow his real-world identity without permission, but I'll bet you can find the music yourself. Believe me, it's worth your trouble.)
• I now understand why it's called "voter registration": I managed to register exactly one new voter during my shift at a local grocery store. In fairness, my friend George, who organized the venture, registered several more before I got there (and, I presume, after I left). Moreover, there was a Kerry team outside the store, registering more voters. Best of all, almost everyone I approached was already registered, and this is a highly Democratic neighborhood.
• A very brief Houston restaurant review of Kaiser's Himalayas (59 at Hillcroft, in the Olympic strip center): after our first trip, we have one vegetarian's thumb up (Stella's), one vegetarian's hand rocking side-to-side in that motion that damns with faint praise (mine). They serve north Indian food, tasty, adequately spicy. It's not a buffet, but is priced almost high enough, even for the lunch special, to be a buffet. It's apparently a family business, as are many Indian and Pakistani restaurants. Initially they mistakenly brought us a dish with meat in the rice; they were most apologetic and immediately corrected the problem, but it was not an auspicious beginning. The decor is very odd: clear plastic tablecloths over fake wood tables on solid fake stone bases, leaving little place for one's feet. But I admit the food is good.
• Teresa Grawunder, classical flutist, spiritual seeker and old friend of mine from our grad school days many years ago, has released a solo CD of improvisations, titled "Mysterium: Solo flute music for inner journeys." I attended the CD release party this weekend. Known for decades for her work in professional orchestras in Houston, including that of the Houston Ballet, Grawunder has, in the past few years, changed the direction of her career to pursue music that is more personally meaningful to her. The CD itself is a highly professional effort, recorded at (arguably) the best studio in town. Unfortunately, I just checked, and the web site is not up yet. I'll let you know as soon as this CD is available online.
• Thanks to another friend over even more years, also a flutist in a completely different musical domain (jazz), I may be able to offer a bit of actual cat blogging this Friday, or sooner if the impulse strikes me.
• Frequent commenter Bryan, where are you? I hope you are merely without power, rather than without a home after Ivan. Your absence has been noticed!

I'll return to politics soon. Right now, I have to navigate around a major accident involving an 18-wheeler at a freeway interchange; it stands between me and my client's office. Sigh...

Steve
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More On Polls

Electoral Vote Predictor has an extended discussion (scroll down) of the Breslin article discussed in my previous post. Among other things is a link to Zogby's response to Breslin, a must-read because Zogby claims his position was not accurately represented, though unintentionally so, by Breslin. The response is very short, and I trust Mr. Zogby will not mind if I quote it in its entirety:

I was recently interviewed by Jimmy Breslin, an icon in American journalism and politics. It was an honor for me to talk to a great man. I believe that there were some miscommunications that have appeared in his most recent Newsday column. Because of the great fanfare this column has received, I feel I must clarify a few issues.

First of all, I still conduct telephone polls. The reality is that polling on the telephone is becoming more difficult; caller id and the widespread use of cell phones are affecting response rates. That said, I feel that representative samples can still be achieved on the phone.

Second, I stand by both my telephone and interactive results. I have yet to see evidence that the situation has gotten to the point where telephone surveys are unusable, and I am equally confident that my interactive surveys have reached a point where they are valid.

Third, cell phones do pose a problem for the polling industry, but not to the level Mr. Breslin feels. It is illegal for polling firms to call cell phones, coupling that with the rapidly increasing rate of cell phone use and the gradual decrease of land lines, the polling industry will face a crisis within a decade. For now, the 170 million cell phones are largely duplicates and triplicates of landlines. Also, many of the people Mr. Breslin cites as missing because of cell phones, are notoriously difficult to each, no matter the circumstance.

To clarify, my statements to Mr. Breslin were aimed at pointing to growing problems in the industry. As an industry, we must adapt to the future or face extinction, because the telephone will not always be a valid method of conducting random samples.

Please do read Electoral Vote Predictor's post; there's much more about all of this. I am personally still of the opinion that no one, not even the most conscientious pollster, has a crystal ball revealing election results.

---

I'll be out registering voters today. Blogging will be light for the rest of the weekend.

Steve
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Collapsing Telephone Polls

Sic, as scholars say. Polls, not poles. If you want collapsing telephone poles, Ivan has provided plenty of those.

On the other hand, if one is to believe John Zogby... and our local reliable source, Dr. Richard Murray of the University of Houston's Center for Public Policy, has great respect for Zogby... polls taken by telephone are not worth the bits used to tally them or the pixels expended to display the results. Jimmy Breslin puts it this way:

Anybody who believes these national political polls are giving you facts is a gullible fool.

Any editors of newspapers or television news shows who use poll results as a story are beyond gullible. On behalf of the public they profess to serve, they are indolent salesmen of falsehoods.

This is because these political polls are done by telephone. Land-line telephones, as your house phone is called.

The telephone polls do not include cellular phones. There are almost 169 million cell phones being used in America today - 168,900,019 as of Sept. 15, according to the cell phone institute in Washington.

     ...

Breslin goes on to quote Zogby on the subject of cell phones:

     ...

"I don't use telephones anymore because there is no easy way to use them," John Zogby was saying yesterday. It was the 20th anniversary of the start of his polling company. He began with what he calls "blue highway polls," sheriffs' races in Onandaga and Jefferson counties in upstate New York.

"The people who are using telephone surveys are in denial," Zogby was saying. "It is similar to the '30s, when they first started polling by telephones and there were people who laughed at that and said you couldn't trust them because not everybody had a home phone. Now they try not to mention cell phones. They don't look or listen. They go ahead with a method that is old and wrong."

Zogby points out that you don't know in which area code the cell phone user lives. Nor do you know what they do. Beyond that, you miss younger people who live on cell phones. If you do a political poll on land-line phones, you miss those from 18 to 25, and there are figures all over the place that show there are 40 million between the ages of 18 and 29, one in five eligible voters.

And the great page-one presidential polls don't come close to reflecting how these younger voters say they might vote. The majority of them use cell phones and nobody ever asks them anything.

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According to the rest of the column, Zogby is looking at carefully controlled, email-driven internet polls as a possible remedy. I have my reservations, but Zogby proclaims,

     ...

I am making a segue into Internet polling, which is going to be the future," he was saying yesterday. "You use screened e-mails of hundreds of thousands. Every household has some chance of being polled. How can you not do it that way? I have three children. The one in Washington uses only a cell phone. The ones at home use cell phones."

     ...

Food for thought, eh? I'm one of those older folks Breslin mocks in his column, but I thought for a few moments about my phone calls over the past 48 hours. In fully half of them, either I, or the other party, or both of us, were on cell phones. That is despite the fact that I work from home most of the time.

The moral of the story, if one can use the word "moral" in connection with anything political these days, is this: the next time you're upset with the poll numbers, remember how many potential voters are technologically omitted from the samples.

(Via BlondeSense.)

Steve
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The Texas Miracle -- UPDATED

When Bush was running for president in 2000, he claimed education as his central issue. He pointed to his accomplishments in Texas... the so-called Texas miracle... and assured everyone that what he had done for Texas, he would do for the nation.

Of all the promises he made and broke, Bush kept that one promise: with bipartisan support, he passed the No Child Left Behind (NCLB, pronounced "nickleby") law, making the nation's education policy as good or as bad as that of Texas. Just to make sure things would be at least as bad nationwide as they are here, he appointed former HISD superintendent Rod Paige, certifiable nutjob and experienced incompetent, as his Secretary of Education. But things would have broken anyway. Bush has not spent the money Congress authorized for educational improvements, preferring to give tax cuts to wealthy people and make war on a nation that did not threaten our security... until Bush took us to war against them. Education funds withheld, tax breaks only for the wealthiest citizens, war without end... Bush seems to have hit yet another trifecta.

Texas, like most other states, has had serious challenges funding its education system since Bush took office. Unlike other states, Texas has suffered Bush for six years longer than the rest of the nation. And for much of that time, he had the help of a Republican-dominated state legislature. So, to use Norquist's memorable phrase, the beast... in this case, the public school system... has been starved here for at least a decade.

I am not well-versed on all the battles that have been fought in the Lege and the courts over the legality and state constitutionality of the various schemes for funding public schools and universities in Texas, but there have certainly been a lot of such battles. A good introduction to the more-or-less current status of things is an op-ed written by State Rep. Scott Hochberg (D-Houston), the Lege's acknowledged expert on education finance issues. Much of the controversy has been about the "Robin Hood" system, which attempts to equalize the educational opportunities of children in poor and wealthy districts by mandating a sharing of property tax revenues across school districts. Some 87 percent of Texas public school districts benefit from this system, and the 13 percent of districts whose wealthy taxpayers are net contributors to the system are, well, wealthy, and not materially harmed by the process, though they sometimes whine as if they are being bled.

Meanwhile, the state's contribution... now a mere 38 percent... has dropped to the point that most districts are in trouble. As I see it, there are good and bad aspects to increasing state funding of education. On the one hand, local property taxes (even according to my more liberal friends who own homes) have become a serious problem. On the other hand, Texas has no state income tax, depending instead primarily on an unabashedly regressive state sales tax. (I admit I'm in over my head on this one. This post is about education, not general tax policy.) If only NCLB really provided any help!

Governor Rick "Good-Hair" Perry (R-Hunger) repeatedly called special sessions of the Lege in an attempt to force his own plan, but that didn't please even his own party... which ultimately voted unanimously against the plan, as did all Democrats. Eventually, nothing was done; the old plan was left in place.

Now a state judge has declared the current plan to be in violation of the Texas Constitution:

AUSTIN - A state district judge today declared Texas' school finance system unconstitutional and said he would give the Legislature a year to correct the problem.

State District Judge John Dietz said the state needed to put more money into the public schools and relieve school districts of having to increase local property taxes.

     ...

The judge also said lower test scores among low-income students indicated a widening gap in educational opportunities between rich and poor school districts. The state is expected to appeal the decision.

Dietz has regularly remarked that he knows his role is that of a fact-finder, and that the ultimate determination of whether the state's school finance system is constitutional will rest with the Texas Supreme Court.

But he did today will reverberate at the Capitol, where lawmakers failed in the spring to make any revisions to the oft-criticized system during a 30-day special session. Gov. Rick Perry decided not to call another session after House Speaker Tom Craddick said many representatives wanted to wait for a ruling in the lawsuit filed by 340 school districts, including Houston.

Wayne Pierce, director of the Equity Center, a coalition of school districts, said earlier that if Dietz finds the system unconstitutional, the Legislature can't afford to wait until the case is appealed. The next regular session begins in January.

"I hope our Legislature will go ahead and do the best they can to establish a system that adequately and equitably funds education for all Texas children," Pierce said.

The districts are arguing that they cannot afford to meet the state's educational goals with a funding system that is overly dependent on local property taxes. The state's share of the $30 billion system has dropped to a historic low of 38 percent.

The districts are making three basic arguments: The system is inequitable, with a growing gap between property-rich and property-poor districts; state funding is inadequate to provide the "general diffusion of knowledge" required by the Texas Constitution; and the property tax cap of $1.50 for school maintenance and operations amounts to an unconstitutional statewide property tax.

     ...

I don't know if this ruling will stand or not, and I doubt seriously that a final ruling will be delivered before elections. Trying to kill Robin Hood is a popular sport here, though for most of us it has been a spectator sport... we've watched while property-rich districts go for the kill. It is quite a change to see a large number of districts, both rich and poor, all demanding more education funding from the state. But hey, unlike most of our spectator sports, it's free to watch. Pull up a chair, grab some popcorn, cheer both for greater state funding and for Robin, and watch the Lege try to deal with the legacy of George W. Bush's education miracle.

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NOTE: be sure to read the very informative sidebar in the Chronicle article quoted above.

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UPDATE: this morning, the Chronicle has an article with the title Judge overturns 'Robin Hood' (doesn't that bring images to the literal mind!) containing more info on why such a variety of school districts sued to overturn the finance system. Some, of course, are in that 13 percent; others are in the position of having almost no control over their property tax rate for M&O:

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Many of the districts that sued the state have been forced to tax at the statutory cap of $1.50 for school maintenance and operations. They argued that amounts to an unconstitutional statewide property tax, and [Judge] Dietz agreed.

"These districts have lost all meaningful discretion for setting the tax rate for their districts," said Dietz.

     ...

For many districts, that was clearly the immediate motive for the suit, but the judge found an additional constitutional basis for his ruling:

     ...

Dietz also declared that the $30 billion system does not meet the constitutional requirement of being efficient because of a "significant gap of more than 10 points in educational achievement" between economically disadvantaged students and those who are not economically disadvantaged.

"Half of our students in Texas are significantly behind in achievement compared to the other half," said Dietz.

     ...

Dietz said that if the state fails to close the gap, it faces a future with a population that will be poorer and will have a higher percentage of Texans likely to be imprisoned or in need of government services.

HISD Interim Superintendent Abe Saavedra said Dietz made the right decision. He said the district has been forced to cut its budget nearly $100 million in the past four years as revenues from the state have steadily declined.

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And of course Gov. Goodhair is all over this one:

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Perry, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and House Speaker Tom Craddick all said they will work to find a legislative solution on school finance. The three were unable to agree on how to raise taxes to provide additional funding for schools during a special session called by Perry last spring.

"I will continue to work with legislators to find common ground on property taxes and school finance regardless of how the courts ultimately rule," said Perry.

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As I said, pass the popcorn; here we go again...

UPDATE: the Houston Chronicle, in an editorial, sides firmly with Judge Dietz.

Steve
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