I've been reading Al Gore's The Assault on Reason (see the LibraryThing link in the right column for
information). Last night I came to the chapter called The Carbon Crisis, with its examination of
Hurricane Katrina. Gore's text of course examines primarily the utter failure of the response, but has some
remarks setting the scientific context. From page 211 of the hardbound edition (ahem... the library's copy):
A hundred years ago, Upton Sinclair wrote, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary
depends upon his not understanding it." Here's what I think we understand about Hurricane Katrina and global
warming: Yes, it is true that the science does not definitively tell us that global warming increases the
frequency of hurricanes -- because, yes, it is true that there is a multidecadal cycle, a cycle of twenty to
forty years, that profoundly affects the number of hurricanes that come in any single hurricane season. But it
is also true that the science is extremely clear now, that warmer oceans make the average hurricane stronger:
not only make the winds stronger, but dramatically increase the moisture evaporating from the oceans into the
storm -- thus magnifying its destructive power -- and make the intensity of the hurricane stronger.
Compare that with the similarly cautious but nonetheless strongly suggestive statement by the always essential
Dr. Jeff Masters,
resident hurricane expert at Weather Underground, writing about Humberto, Felix and Dean:
Humberto, Felix, and Dean--a sign of climate change?
Many people have asked me if the fact that we've had two record-breaking rapidly intensifying storms this year--
Felix and now Humberto--imply that climate change might be affecting Atlantic hurricanes for the worse. It's
also very odd that we've had eight Category 5 hurricanes in the past five years, and two landfalling Category 5
hurricanes this year. That's a lot of Cat 5 activity. So, let's look at the facts and see what we can learn.
... (extensive discussion of the historical record)
This year is the fourth year multiple Cat 5's have occurred--see
Wikipedia's
Category 5 list to see the details. We've now had six Cat 5's in the past three years, and eight in the past
five years. Is this an indication climate change is at work? Well, we did have back-to-back years with two Cat
5's each (1960 and 1961), so one can still argue that the Cat 5 activity of recent years is a statistical
abnormality. In addition, recent work done studying sediment deposits indicates that intense hurricanes have
gone through cycles lasting hundreds or even thousands of years long. Periods of high Category 5 activity
similar to that observed the past five years could well have occurred in the distant past. Still, some very good
hurricane scientists have begun presenting evidence that climate change may be increasing both the frequency and
intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic. It is possible that climate change may be partially responsible for the
recent spate of Cat 5's and rapidly intensifying storms. Climate change is significantly affecting weather
patterns worldwide, and must be influencing hurricanes. Unfortunately, we don't have a long enough or high
enough quality data record of Atlantic hurricanes to accurately judge how much of an impact this might be.
Furthermore, it's not clear why the Atlantic Ocean would be the most strongly affected--we see little evidence
that climate change is creating stronger hurricanes in the other ocean basins. But, the events of 2005 and again
this year leave me concerned. Eight Cat 5's in five years is an awful lot of severe storms in such a short
period. Climate change may be indeed be changing Atlantic hurricanes for the worse.
Again, it's a cautious, reasoned (!) statement on the matter; please read the whole thing. Nobody's ranting
here, neither Gore nor Masters from their different perspectives, and for one rare time, I'm not ranting
either. But there are so many independent bits of evidence of large-scale climate change (consider the polar
regions for a recent example), evidence having nothing directly to do with the frequency and size of hurricanes,
that I am personally persuaded that climate change is a major influence on Atlantic hurricanes.
And "personally" is the right word; I do take it personally: I am really tired of having to check the weather sites every couple of hours to see
if there is an "instant hurricane" emerging in the Gulf of Mexico.
So here's my mini-rant: Gore is optimistic we can do something about this, but only if we start right away, and
only if the powerful forces obstructing widespread rational public discussion of the facts (<cough>
ExxonMobil </cough>) (<cough> CheneyBush </cough>) are overcome. I do not know what can be
done about ExxonMobil's repeated publication of factually challenged don't-worry-be-happy talk about global
warming; as long as we have corporate personhood, it's difficult to challenge corporate speech. But the other
obstacle... Bush and Cheney... can damned well be impeached. Their use of our government as if it were a private
piggy-bank for their own investments could well be grounds enough, even if there weren't dozens of other bases
for impeachment.
This particular tower is on the hike 'n' bike trail on Brays Bayou. A year or two ago, someone actually did
attempt to climb one of these towers... suicidal? crazy? stupid? bored? I don't know... and got fairly high up
before she was spotted by some emergency personnel. Miraculously, she was rescued, unharmed. Do not try this
at home in your neighborhood.
One of these towers is actually dangerous to cyclists along the path, and not because you need a tinfoil cycling
helmet to ward off the electric field. (I'm joking, of course.) No, that one tower actually straddles the path,
right at a sharp double curve, so that if cyclists or pedestrians approach from opposite directions and happen
to arrive under the tower at the same moment, it can be a challenge for them not to collide with each other or
with one of the tower supports. This can be avoided, of course, but some of the more fitness-crazed cyclists
seem determined not to reduce speed even one bit as they head into the narrows. I wish them well in their
self-imposed time trials, but I hope they don't get themselves... and me... killed.
Kudos to
Wolfrum of Shakesville
for his send-up of the silliness regarding improper videotaping of opponents' signals in the Patriots/Jets game.
And Executive privilege. And
Security Theater™.
And Democratic willingness to give away the store to avoid appearing "soft on terror." And... aw, just go read
it; you know you need the laugh!
Former Hurricane Humberto, now a tropical depression manifested mainly in its flooding aftereffects, came and
went in a bit more than two days.
SciGuy
(Eric Berger, the Houston Chronicle's excellent science writer) speculates on how this one may have emerged
so quickly, making it difficult to prepare. Short answer: weather researchers don't know enough to say yet.
If you're feeling too calm now that Humberto is behind us, there's always another one to
worry about. E.g., this morning you can speculate on what Tropical Storm
Ingrid
will do. At least you have some time to think about this one.
After all that excitement, former Rep. Mark Foley is unlikely to be indicted for IMing those congressional
pages regarding his fond desires. I wonder why the state of Florida allowed the statute of limitations to
expire...
Seriously, though, apparently he never actually boinked any pages who were under 18, and there was
insufficient evidence to charge him with a federal crime, so the feds handed off to Florida, where the
statute of limitations for talking dirty with minors is apparently very short. Foley is no longer around
congressional pages, and the world knows what he did, so I suppose society is protected from him, and his
punishment is the loss of his seat. Still, I have to say, I view what Foley did as a lot worse than, say,
hiring an adult prostitute, or trolling for sex in public bathrooms. Your mileage may vary.
Speechifyin', not deciderin':
I understand there was a
speech
last night. I also gather nothing unexpected was said, and nothing changed as a result. I did not watch in
real-time, though Talking Points Memo provided a good, brief
video summary.
(Good and brief... that's probably redundant.) Also via TPM, we have
Sen. Jack Reed's Democratic response
(text only).
As far as I can tell, the whole thing was a nonevent.
Ted Olson?
Unreconstructed partisan hack
Ted Olson for Attorney General?
Um, I don't think so.
At least I hope not. With Harry Reid, these days, one never knows whether he will really stand tall and
actually stop Bush's fuck-you gestures, or whether he will look at his shoes, mumble and stand aside.
Please note that the WaPo article doesn't even mention Reid's announced defiance. I guess anything
a Democrat says is not newsworthy. Also... why the paragraph about Barbara Olson's death? It's not news.
Is it relevant to this matter? The paragraph stands alone; it's not woven into the story in any way. Is
it supposed to evoke sympathy for the poor fellow, the man partially responsible for bringing us
Bush v. Gore?
He has spent his career challenging the establishment, even changing his name to try to get out of a
recording contract. But Prince's latest argument has seen him take on a different entity altogether -
the internet.
The 49-year-old musician said yesterday he is considering legal action against a number of websites -
including eBay and YouTube - which he says encourage piracy of his music and videos.
He has asked for more than 2,000 illegally uploaded videos to be removed from YouTube, and is also
considering action against eBay and Swedish piracy search engine The Pirate Bay.
"Very few artists have ever taken this kind of action over their rights," said a spokesman. "Yet Prince
has shown time and time again he is ready to challenge the system in new ways to put artists and music
first."
...
Um, Prince? Get over yourself. At this stage in your career, you should be grateful that anyone bothers to
listen to you, on any medium whatsoever. For what it's worth, I promise you that I will not voluntarily hear
your music on any medium that violates copyright. Or on any medium that is copyright-legal. Got that? Sigh.
I didn't think so.
And not everybody is happy about it. Specifically, people who, against all reason, turned off the Automatic
Update feature of Windows are unhappy that Microsoft overrode their setting to update parts of the update
mechanism itself. Oh, good grief. If Microsoft can't tweak the update mechanism when it needs tweaking,
they may not be able to use it to determine what the user's setting of Automatic Update is. I have a lot
of problems with Microsoft, both their technology and their aggressive corporate behavior, but I think
objecting to this is just plain silly.
And I think people whose memories are less than perfect are fools not to at least allow the updates to be
automatically downloaded and notified in the, um, notification area, even if they explicitly perform the
updates themselves. The world is full of risks. Microsoft is, in this rare instance, trying to clean up its
own security shortcomings. Let 'em.
Stella finds musical and political inspiration at the same time. Be forewarned, though: Bill used to be
a full-height standing cardboard cutout, until Stella cut him off at the waist and nailed him to the wall. No
doubt Hillary occasionally had thoughts of doing that with the real Bill...
Wow. When I went to bed, I certainly never expected that. I cannot do better than to quote
Dr. Jeff Masters,
who describes Humberto's surprise metamorphosis into a more powerful, more dangerous storm, then offers this:
Storms like Humberto give us the sobering reminder that as much as hurricane forecasting has improved in recent
years, there is still much we do not understand--particularly in regards to intensity forecasting. If Humberto
had had another 12-24 hours over water, it could have been a major hurricane that would have hit without enough
time to evacuate those at risk.
Sobering indeed. Those of us near this part of the coast know the story of Galveston's
1900 hurricane
that destroyed so much and killed more than 6,000 people. Many deaths occurred because there was nothing
resembling the forecasting capabilities we depend on today to give people time to get out of harm's way. If
new behavior of hurricanes becomes common enough to weaken a century's worth of development in predicting their
paths, life along the coast could become a lot more dangerous. One can hope that Humberto is just a freak
occurrence. Time will tell.
What? Oh... nothing ever happened in our neck of the woods. Nothing. The sun is out this morning; it's the
typical cloudy-bright view we encounter frequently this time of year.
Afterthought: Humberto's winds did, after all, prove
dangerous:
...
In Bridge City, residents awoke today to flying pieces of debris, waving power poles and the sounds of roaring
winds as the city took the brunt of Hurricane Humberto. The center of the storm moved across the City of Orange
at 5:45 a.m., said Michael Marcotte, a meteorologist at the weather service office in Lake Charles, La.
Marcotte said he was on the telephone with a Port Arthur resident early this morning when the man described the
roof of an apartment building near his home blowing off and landing on four vehicles parked nearby.
...
Who among us expected danger from wind; all of us thought the rains would be the primary danger.
UPDATE: please read what the Houston Chronicle's
SciGuy
(Eric Berger) has to say about what Humberto could do next. We may not be done with this storm yet.
There has still been no rain in this part of town. Looking at the animated radar, I think this one decided to
miss us; please forgive me if I do not miss it. The storm is still slow-moving (6mph), has or had a partial
eyewall, and is probably a serious nuisance (at least) to people up-coast from us. But based on my extremely
limited knowledge of weather... and on some other people's much greater knowledge... I don't see the southwest
part of Houston getting very much rain from Humberto after all.
We'll know if that is the case in a few hours. Meanwhile, I'm going to try to get some sleep.
Here is a summary of weather activity in our part of Houston at the moment:
That's right... nothing is happening yet. Galveston is getting a fair amount of weather. But it's not even
raining here at the moment. It feels truly weird.
Humberto is fairly likely to make minimal hurricane strength before landing, depending on how long it takes to
make landfall. As I write this, estimates are that we will see our part of it somewhere between 2:00am and
5:00am CDT. It is forecast to land east of Galveston. That is no bad news for Stella and me, but one person's
fortune is another's misfortune when it comes to tropical weather. Again, this storm is dangerous for its rain,
not its wind or storm surge.
For your comfort (and ours), be aware that our apartments are a long block from a major bayou, but the
apartments themselves are at a pretty good elevation above the normal bayou level. Even the infamous Tropical
Storm Allison, which in some respects resembles Humberto, did not flood these apartments. (OK, it came
frighteningly close. But we stayed dry.)
Presuming I have a net connection and electric power (and at the moment, I do presume that), I'll probably
awaken when the storm gets here and file a report. Otherwise, all of you rest well and stay dry. Well, at least
rest well; you can have a drink if you want...
Actually,
lute
and
baroque guitar. The linked lute video
contains an interview with O'Dette about the mechanics of the lute itself, and includes a splendid excerpt from
a Dowland fantasy (I think). (Please forgive my not embedding the videos; this page is a bit slow-loading
already.) O'Dette, now as then, teaches at Eastman and lives in Rochester. Few living players of plucked-string
instruments can match him, and his live performances are the proof that his recordings are genuine.
I suppose I could envy O'Dette his technique and his sheer joie de vivre that is evident when he plays.
But really I just envy him the beard. Once possibly three decades ago we had dinner with him after a concert,
and learned that he makes truly painfully awful puns. Someone at the table said his brother had studied medicine
at the American University in Cairo. "Ah," exclaimed O'Dette... "he's a Cairo-practor!"
It's still not raining here; it's hard to believe Tropical Storm Humberto is on the way tonight and tomorrow.
All of us who lived through T.S. Allison a few years ago are always concerned with storms that have the
possibility of stalling over the city and dumping unbelievable amounts of rain. According to local TV stations,
and confirmed by Weather Underground, rain looks likely to be the main threat from Humberto, which probably
will not reach hurricane strength by the time of landfall.
Stella and I advanced the schedule on some of our errands we might otherwise have delayed until tomorrow or the
weekend. Those are done now, and I plan to blog through the storm, if I have power and a connection.
Actually, I'm just back on the YDD. I think things are working well enough to land here for a while. Thanks to
all of you who followed me to the Annex.
Well, that was exhausting... not only was the YDD still not visible on the net when I got up this morning, but
when it finally came up, the server-side service (say that fast!) that I need to be able to post the blog was
not running. The SFTP service may be running (or not), but SSH is not available yet, which prevents SFTP use.
So I had to resort to good old FTP...
... except there was no Windows interface for FTP on this machine, and I'm damned if I'll slog through it with
the command line. When I went to download my old favorite free FTP client, I found that it had become a
commercial product, at a price I was not prepared to spend... hey, one FTP client is much like another. So I had
to locate, download and install another one (SmartFTP; I hope it's aptly named) before I could post this.
As some of you have discovered (thanks!), in the interim, I've been blogging over at
The YDD Annex,
my blog of last resort. So far today, I've put up the following posts there:
I'll update the list above at some point as I add more posts on the Annex today. Originally I had planned simply
to copy those posts back inline on the YDD, but I think I'll let this link post suffice... I'm plumb blogged
out. Just to be clear about it,
I plan to spend the rest of the day blogging at
The YDD Annex,
returning here sometime late tonight or early tomorrow, hoping that by then my usual posting mechanism will be
working again. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Reinforcing what
Olbermann ranted about
and just about everyone has written about, Steve Benen of
The Carpetbagger Report
reiterates the infamous and horrifying statement made by Bush in interviewing with Robert Draper for the
latter's book Dead Certain:
"I’m playing for October-November." - George W. Bush
Playing. Playing with our troops. Playing for time. Playing for political gain. To us, to our people in uniform,
it's deadly. To Bush, it's a game.
<sports_analogy>
He's running out the clock, the way early NBA players did in my younger years, before the rules were changed. Of
course, with today's increasingly ill-named "report," he also has someone jacking around with the scoreboard,
bribing the officials, rigging the next draft (ahem), etc.
</sports_analogy>
(Sorry; sports analogies are not my forte. I know that in itself makes me an un-American traitor...) But my
point is this: if we needed any more evidence that Bush will do literally anything to make himself look better
at the cost of the security and stability of our nation, this is it. By his own words, he's playing for time.
C'mon, congressional Democrats: what will it take to wake you up? How many Friedman units, how much of the
treasury... how many lives... must be sunk before you will put your foot down?
I am reading Al Gore's book,
The Assault on Reason.
Gore, who despite MSM conventional wisdom is a very bright fellow indeed, offers a number of clues as to how we
got to this point... not just the Iraq war, but the sorry state of our national political "dialog" and the trend
toward a totalitarian government. Beyond the obvious aspects, some of Gore's insights were new to me; with luck,
I can discuss them after the enforced blog break. Hey, it beats writing yet another whining 9/11 post.
Please remember the scheduled blog outage this afternoon and evening. While the YDD isn't visible, if some major
earthshaking event occurs on which you simply must have my words of "wisdom," try the following link:
They say "sympathy" comes from roots meaning "same feelings" or "same pain," so all of us can unreservedly wish
Laura Bush
our sympathy and a speedy recovery from her big pain in the neck.
Shamelessly borrowed from Bruce Schneier's blog
Schneier on Security,
where a few commenters have ideas on what the purpose of the sign may be.
I've heard of prisoners having sex through a fence (a long, sad story, which I'll omit because this is supposed
to be a silly post), but who knew the owners of the fence would be so accommodating!
Well, OK, it's a liquor warehouse. And this is a geek's cheap visual pun. But there it is...
TOP OF POLE
.
.
.
BOTTOM OF SAME POLE
... and as advertised, there's a Cat 5 connector and a power source. With that sign, there's no danger you'll
forget where to plug in your PORT-able inventory device. Now that's truth in advertising!
Now I want to see what's at the bottom of the pole labeled SHERRY...
I guess it goes to show that a C student with enough money and connections can steal the U.S. presidency.
Could this man possibly embarrass our nation any worse before the international community? I mean, apart from
his being dangerous to the security of the entire world, does he really have to display such... ignorance?
I spent a summer teaching in Austria three decades ago. I can assure you that the
Wiener Staatsoper
looks nothing like the
pictures
I've seen of the
Sydney Opera House.
But as GeeDubya is not paying attention, ever, as far as I can tell, I suppose it's an understandable mistake...
inexcusable, but understandable.
The New York Times
tells us, "Petraeus Calls Iraq War ‘Exceedingly Complex’." Well, no kidding. And I wouldn't want to be in his
shoes while Dubya manipulates the so-called "Petraeus report" for political purposes. I'm sorry, but after all
the White House intervention in the increasingly inappropriately named "Petraeus report," and considering what
Petraeus personally stands to gain or lose based on his testimony, I find anything the good General says or
writes from this point forward to be...
Generally Unbelievable
See General Petraeus
With Preznit Betrayus,
Who fixes the Gen. with his scowl;
"You do what you're told; yer
A heckuva soldier."
Well, hell... wouldn't you pull a Powell?
Reporting successes,
Ignoring the messes,
Dave's told to let Bush do the writing;
Those folders just might house
A screed from the White House...
And look at those Democrats, biting!
Dave's talk before Congress?
"The gains are humongress!
Our soldiers, assuredly surging!"
See Dubya get hummers!
Dave's cherry-picked nummers
He chose at the pretzeldent's urging.
For if he were candid
And counted each man dead,
That wouldn't support the Great Scammer.
Dave's future? no cash heap;
He'd land in a trash heap,
Or possibly, even the slammer.
Dave's close to retirement.
His book deal requirement?
Top rankings on Amazon, Borders.
No matter who's dying,
If found to be lying,
He'll say... "I was following orders!"
LM at Group News Blog
offers an essay on the
Jena Six
that certainly does credit to the memory of Steve Gilliard. If you are white in America, you need to read
this... you still will not really know how African Americans are treated to this very day, and how they really
feel about it, but you will come closer.
Note: the conspiracy conviction has been
thrown out
by a judge:
Bell was the first of six teens to go to trial. The attempted murder charges were reduced to aggravated
second-degree battery and conspiracy to commit aggravated battery, and Bell was convicted. However, Judge J.P.
Mauffray Jr. threw out the conspiracy conviction Tuesday, saying juveniles could not be charged with conspiracy
in adult court.
Not great news, but not as bad as it could have been. Please also note that the AP story does not even mention
the nooses and threats against black students until the last paragraph. Nor does it mention that the
convictions were handed down by an all-white jury after hearing all-white witnesses. There's nothing like
failing to set context upfront to bias a news story.
When you are done with LM's essay, be sure to watch and listen to Billie Holiday singing Strange Fruit (the
video is at the bottom of the essay). Yes, I know; you've heard it before. Yes, I needed to hear that reminder
one more time.
Monday, Sept. 10, starting sometime in the afternoon, the YDD's host, NearlyFreeSpeech.net, will be down for
four to eight hours while they physically move their equipment to a new datacenter and make some other changes
that will give them more reliability and control when faced with the kinds of upstream outages we've seen
several times this year. If you try to visit the YDD during that time, you will see some sort of maintenance
page.
Apologies for the inconvenience; I just learned about this myself. The move has been in the planning stage for
quite a few months; it is possible that last night's outage precipitated a decision to do it now.
This post [update: actually, just a link to it] will float to the top for the rest of the weekend. See below for
the latest post [update: no longer necessary; see above].
Addendum: here's the most enjoyable passage from the blog post announcing the reasons for the change...
4) We will be behind dedicated hot-failover routers and firewalls under our control, ...
Hot-failover routers and firewalls! Under our control! Just thinking about them is enough to get an old
man excited. Will there be photos? videos? Is this going to increase my hosting fee?
NEW YORK - A federal judge struck down a key part of the USA Patriot Act on Thursday in a ruling that
defended the need for judicial oversight of laws and bashed Congress for passing a law that makes possible
"far-reaching invasions of liberty."
U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero immediately stayed the effect of his ruling, allowing the government time
to appeal. Justice Department spokesman Dean Boyd said: "We are reviewing the decision and considering our
options at this time."
The ruling handed the American Civil Liberties Union a major victory in its challenge of the post-Sept. 11
law that gave broader investigative powers to law enforcement.
The ACLU had challenged the law on behalf of an Internet service provider, complaining that the law allowed
the FBI to demand records without the kind of court supervision required for other government searches.
Under the law, investigators can issue so-called national security letters to entities like Internet service
providers and phone companies and demand customers' phone and Internet records.
In his ruling, Marrero said much more was at stake than questions about the national security letters.
He said Congress, in the original USA Patriot Act and less so in a 2005 revision, had essentially tried to
legislate how the judiciary must review challenges to the law. If done to other bills, they ultimately could
all "be styled to make the validation of the law foolproof."
...
Exactly so. No law, and no part of a law, should ever be exempt from judicial review.
The bad news:
Experts Doubt Drop In Violence in Iraq
Military Statistics Called Into Question
By Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, September 6, 2007; Page A16
The U.S. military's claim that violence has decreased sharply in Iraq in recent months has come under
scrutiny from many experts within and outside the government, who contend that some of the underlying
statistics are questionable and selectively ignore negative trends.
Reductions in violence form the centerpiece of the Bush administration's claim that its war strategy is
working. In congressional testimony Monday, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, is
expected to cite a 75 percent decrease in sectarian attacks. According to senior U.S. military officials in
Baghdad, overall attacks in Iraq were down to 960 a week in August, compared with 1,700 a week in June, and
civilian casualties had fallen 17 percent between December 2006 and last month. Unofficial Iraqi figures
show a similar decrease.
Others who have looked at the full range of U.S. government statistics on violence, however, accuse the
military of cherry-picking positive indicators and caution that the numbers -- most of which are classified
-- are often confusing and contradictory. "Let's just say that there are several different sources within
the administration on violence, and those sources do not agree," Comptroller General David Walker told
Congress on Tuesday in releasing a new Government Accountability Office report on Iraq.
...
DeYoung provides assessments of methodology from several sources. Put politely, they vary considerably. Put
in terms I would use, the Bushists are learning to lie with statistics, cherry-picking the counts using
criteria designed to make the "surge" look good. You'd think I would be grateful the Bushists are moving
beyond lies and damned lies to (fake) statistics, but I say "... a lie is a lie is a lie."
At least somebody is watching the watchers. I used to question that translation, but "watchers" seems
singularly appropriate for the Bushists these days.
Of all the Iraqi bloggers,
Riverbend
has come to symbolize, for Americans who give a damn, the plight of Iraqi civilians during the war. We followed
her through the early stages in which things she had known and cared about were destroyed. Later, she led us
through the travails that even comfortably middle-class Iraqis suffered. Then we agonized with her as the
social fabric of Iraq, lacking any effective government and beset by sectarian forces as well as unbelievable
stupidity on the part of American leaders imposing a cracked version of "democracy" on a society with neither
physical nor governmental infrastructure in working condition, came unraveled, leading to a time in which every
Iraqi family of any cultural origin suffered deaths of loved ones. Finally, a few months ago, we held our breath
as Riverbend announced that she and her family intended to leave Iraq.
Riverbend and her family are in Syria now. I suppose that counts as relative safety: if it's further down Dick
Cheney's list than Iran, it's possible America will run out of troops and resources for further invasions
before Syria is invaded. But I don't doubt for a minute that Cheney wants to go there.
But River is now a refugee. Think about what that means. Refugees may have shelter for a moment. Some may have
money, from family or other sources or stashed away somewhere. But no refugee really has rights. That is what
a refugee necessarily trades away just to be alive day to day. No rights... no real security.
Based on what we've all read in seminal neocon documents (look up PNAC's "Rebuilding America's Defenses"), our
political opponents really do seem to think it necessary to control the world in order to feel secure. Beyond
that, our alleged president and alleged vice president seem to take actual personal pleasure in invading
nations, toppling governments they don't approve of (even in cases where the governments are elected), and yes,
blowing up things, creatures, people and cultures. Of course, pursuit of wealth is one of their motivating
influences, but they seem to find a joy in the destruction itself, beyond what they get out of it materially.
It's not just the wealth; it's not just the power. Bush, Cheney and company enjoy creating refugees.
I can find no other reasonable explanation for some of their behaviors.
I do not believe life in the U.S. will improve within my expected lifetime. For environmental, economic and
political reasons, things will get worse. One political reason is pretty obvious. My late father often quipped
that the most dangerous part of a car is the nut behind the wheel; I think the same is true of the ship of
state. It takes only one faulty nut, or a few loose nuts, to cause the shipwreck, but the consequences to the
ship are liable to be permanent. (OK, I agree; I've strained that metaphor about as far as I can.)
So... have you given any thought to what your life might be like as a refugee? Maybe this would be a good time
to ponder the possibilities. We could all be Riverbend, perhaps sooner than we middle-class Americans imagine.
I understand it is unrealistic to expect that the kinds of conflicts that create refugees simply cease to do so,
but one can always hope, even without expectation that the hope will be realized. Meanwhile, I offer my
heartfelt wishes for Riverbend's continued wellbeing.
What did he know? that Iraq did not have WMD. When did he know it? Before he ordered the invasion of Iraq.
Via
Mustang Bobby,
we have a
Salon article by Sidney Blumenthal,
which reveals in considerable detail how the Commander in Thief was briefed by CIA chief George Tenet about the
best information available from a high member of Saddam's inner circle, information which ultimately proved to
be "accurate in every detail."
Bush ditched the information, apparently because it did not agree with what he had already decided. Bush did
not merely take us to war on bad or insufficient information... he plunged us into the worst blunder of our age
despite having completely accurate information.
A question for Speaker Pelosi: is this enough basis to put impeachment back on the table? If not, precisely
what sort of "high crime" do you require against the United States of America before you would consider
impeaching these wayward leaders? Is leading us to war on a premise fully known to be false not cause enough?
How many more must die while you decide the answer to that question?
I am privileged to have heard him once live, at the Salzburg Festival in 1978, in a solo recital on one of the
large stages. (I thought I remembered which one, but I am uncertain after all, and that program is buried in the
depths of a closet.) Pavarotti's presence, and I don't mean just his not inconsiderable bulk but rather the
vitality of his whole person, filled the hall. He was in his prime, and his voice was everything it was
advertised to be... no hype there; he was the real deal.
I came across Pavarotti one other time, in an airport in the U.S. (Again I'm not sure which: Pittsburgh?) He
and his entourage (which included Joan Sutherland) were boarding a stretch limo in true Famous Personage
fashion, in front of the terminal, with cameras flashing, etc. There was just one problem: the limo stalled and
could not be restarted. After a few minutes of vain attempts to start it, Pavarotti and his entire group exited
the limo. I don't know what happened next because I had to leave; it is my fantasy that he and Ms. Sutherland
commandeered a piano from the airport bar and performed an impromptu recital.
R.I.P., Luciano Pavarotti. You will be remembered.
Democrats Newly Willing to Compromise on Iraq
By CARL HULSE
Published: September 6, 2007
WASHINGTON, Sept. 5 — With a mixed picture emerging about progress in Iraq, Senate Democratic leaders are
showing a new openness to compromise as they try to attract Republican support for forcing at least modest troop
withdrawals in the coming months.
After short-circuiting consideration of votes on some bipartisan proposals on Iraq before the August break,
senior Democrats now say they are willing to rethink their push to establish a withdrawal deadline of next
spring if doing so will attract the 60 Senate votes needed to prevail.
Senator Carl Levin, Democrat of Michigan, said, “If we have to make the spring part a goal, rather than
something that is binding, and if that is able to produce some additional votes to get us over the filibuster,
my own inclination would be to consider that.”
Democrats would need to lure the 60 senators in order to cut off a likely Republican filibuster.
The emerging proposal by Mr. Levin and Senator Jack Reed, Democrat of Rhode Island, would still order the
administration to begin pulling at least some combat troops out of Iraq, probably by the end of the year. It is
not clear what other provisions the measure may include.
But Mr. Levin, who is chairman of the Armed Services Committee and who met Wednesday with Senator Harry Reid of
Nevada, the majority leader, said a compromise may be worth making. It would allow Congress to assert its own
voice on Iraq policy, after falling short of that goal in most such votes throughout the year, he said.
...
Charlie Brown. Football. Lucy.
How can Democratic senators not see what happens next?
We sent Democrats to Washington in 2006 to end an illegal war (Iraq), refocus an arguably legitimate war
(Afghanistan, though I'm not the one to make that argument at this point), and possibly prevent an additional
third simultaneous war (Iran, heaven help us). An Iraq bill without a deadline is worse than useless. If the
Democratic leadership cannot see that, they are fools. People don't want a bipartisan "compromise"; they want an
end to the Iraq war in a short, well-defined time period.
If Democrats cave on this one, they can forget about financial or campaign support from me in 2008. I'll vote
Democratic, and I may do some work on local campaigns, but I see no reason to continue being stiffed, not once,
but over and over again, at the federal level.
Message to Democratic leadership: you are not Charlie Brown. Neither am I willing to be Charlie Brown; forget
it. Get a clue!
WASHINGTON -- A B-52 bomber was mistakenly armed with six nuclear warheads and flown for more than three hours
across several states last week, prompting an Air Force investigation and the firing of one commander, Pentagon
officials said Wednesday.
...
The plane was carrying Advanced Cruise Missiles from Minot Air Force Base, N.D, to Barksdale Air Force Base,
La., on Aug. 30, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of a Defense Department policy
not to confirm information on nuclear weapons.
The missiles, which are being decommissioned, were mounted onto pylons on the bomber's wings and it is unclear
why the warheads had not been removed beforehand.
...
From power plants to submarines to (intentional) nuclear weapons, this is the problem with nuclear devices of
all sorts: eventually, human error will, not may but will, put someone in harm's way. That may be true of any
technology, but no other technology has the potential for devastation inherent in nuclear devices. Oh, and the
waste from their manufacture (and operation, in the case of power plants) lasts longer than any human
civilization has ever survived to this point.
Could we please find some other way to threaten ourselves and our friends? This way is scaring me...
WASHINGTON, Sept. 4 (Xinhua) -- Recent studies by U.S. veterinarians show that secondhand smoke not only
threat the health of nonsmokers, it can also hurt house pets such as dogs and cats, U.S. media reported Tuesday.
"Secondhand smoke has been associated with oral cancer and lymphoma in cats, lung and nasal cancer in dogs, as
well as lung cancer in birds," said Carolynn Mac Allister, a veterinarian of Oklahoma State University.
There have been a number of scientific papers recently that have reported the significant health threat
secondhand smoke poses to pets.
A study conducted recently at Tuft College of Veterinary Medicine found a strong correlation between secondhand
smoke and certain forms of cancer in cats.
The number of cats with mouth cancer was higher for those animals living in smoking environments versus those
felines living in a smoke-free home.
In addition, cats that lived with smokers for five or more years had an even higher incidence of this type of
oral cancer.
...
Read the details. Regrettably, the article does not link directly to the several studies mentioned, and I'm
about to be busy for a couple of hours, so you're on your own for details.
In any case, I have an idea now why my childhood parakeet died so young. (Sigh.)
Hurricane Felix is no more. The high mountains of Honduras have dissipated the storm, just 24 hours after Felix
smashed ashore near the Nicaragua/Honduras border with 160 mph winds and an 18-foot storm surge. Puerto Cabezas,
a Nicaraguan Caribbean coast town of 40,000 people, took the worst of Felix's wrath. The town sits just 10 miles
south of where the eye hit, and preliminary reports indicate much of the town was heavily damaged, and three
people were killed. The big fear from Felix continues to be the heavy rains it is spawning over the mountainous
regions of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. ...
Two Category 5's, two landfalls. They weren't kidding when they said this would be a rough season.
Heads up, andante and the Scrutiny Hooligans... keep an eye on Invest 99.
("Y,JCTP" = yes,
Jill
created the phrase "Felix the Cat [n]" on a comment thread at
Why Now?
... why should Skippy have all the fun and fame of creating phrases?)
(Apologies in advance for any HaloScan frustrations you may encounter.)
One might expect G.I. Joe to be supplied with plenty of lead. (Insert old Barbie-Ken-G.I.-Joe joke here.) But
for Barbie?
I always thought it was silicone.
Parents, the way things are going, you may as well just go to your kids' toy chest and dump the contents into
the trash. The chest, too, if it was made in China.
I can't help being struck by one characteristic of Bly that is found in so many poets whom I've heard rather
than merely read: there is little distinction between his poet's voice when he reads his own or others' poetry,
and his voice in conversation. You might say he creates poetry continuously. You may also say he's always been a
bit of a crazy, and I'll ask you, what's your point? Enjoy the interview.
Jane Hamsher is
"lucky to be insured".
Uh-huh. Right. I've known quite a few people who were "lucky" in that way.
UPDATE:Jane offers more
on this subject today.
Oh, no... the "flying saucers"
are coming! If you thought driving in heavy traffic was bad enough having to keep up with everything in X
and Y, get ready to watch Z as well.
Now here's a
moldy oldie,
um, newie? A moldy home may adversely affect your mood. From the article: " 'Some molds are toxins, and
exposure to these toxins may hypoactivate parts of the brain that deal with emotions,' says lead author
Edmond Shenassa, assistant professor of epidemiology at Brown Medical School in Providence, R.I."
Now there's a depressing thought!
Will muni wi-fi get underway in Houston, Real Soon Now?
Maybe...
maybe not.
Dwight
expresses doubts, summarizes the situation, and notes that "[w]hat's happening is that, even if cities build
wireless networks, users don't necessarily sign up to use them..." Exactly so. Unless Houston's eventual
muni wi-fi is low-cost and very reliable, I'll give it a miss.
Americans don't want to pay more for safe products,
says a Reuters "analysis." Right. Nobody asked ME. I wonder who paid whom to place this article,
which despite its apparent slant nonetheless collects and presents some useful info.
This one's for
Bryan:
"Texan spiders spin 'monster web'".
Bryan, I'll see you your Golden Silk Orbweaver, and raise you thousands of social cobweb spiders... some
things really are bigger in Texas.
UPDATE: -
Man Charged With Ransoming Mother's Cat.
Yes, it's exactly as the headline implies: a man extorted a total of about $20,000 from his 78-year-old
mother over a period of time by regularly threatening to kidnap her cat. Perhaps humanity has never been
any different, but the worst among us sink to lows that could render the greatest optimist cynical.
Yes, I want to write about a few serious things, including the batshit-crazy GOP elephant in the room (the
possibility of
war with Iran)
but I have a few necessary things to do, so that will just have to wait.
I suddenly have a craving for a glass of wine. The oddity of their instrument (instruments?) aside, this couple,
Anna and Arkadiusz Szafraniec, who bill themselves as
Glass Duo,
are superb musicians:
... but if you practice a trade or work in an industry, and if there's a union available to you, you will likely
find it worthwhile to join it. Whether you are in a unionized industry or not, you have benefited from the
result of battles historically fought by unions... among them, the
eight-hour workday
(see left; the
banner
is from Australia in 1856) and two-day weekends. For more information on the asymmetries of power between
workers and employers that led to the formation of unions, the
Wikipedia article
on unions provides a good summary. The article, international in scope, reminds Americans that the link between
the unions and the Democratic Party is not as ironclad as labor/political affiliations in many countries. It
also (probably unintentionally) reminds us of what happens to unions when they side with Republicans. (Think of
Reagan and PATCO. PATCO supported Reagan for president; Reagan permanently busted PATCO when they struck.)
Of course I'm still a union member, AFM Local 65-699 (the Houston Professional Musicians Association) even
though I have retired from performance. For me personally, the union paid for my dues many times over in
standardizing and enforcing contracts so that I reliably got paid after playing a job. You don't want to hear
my stories from the days before I joined the union.
Have a great Labor Day. Choose the beef wheat gluten for your barbeque carefully. Stay out of big winds,
heavy rains, mudslides (I believe it was
Cookie Jill
who referred to the current killer storm as Felix the Cat 5),
and wildfires (that means you, Jill). All of you stay safe. We're staying home, having had enough adventures
yesterday.
How did I miss this two weeks ago? Via Brad Blog, we
have some videos (with technical problems) of Dan Rather reporting for HDNet back on 8/14 about serious problems
in the voting technologies used in Palm Beach County... problems known to manufacturer ES&S... problems
spanning touchscreen machines and punch-card ballots... that could very well account for the undervote of more
than 10,000 voters who supposedly voted but cast no ballots in the 2000 presidential election, or who cast
ballots on touchscreen machines in a close congressional race in a later election, only to observe that the
touchscreen equipment either selected no candidate, or selected a candidate other than the one they touched with
the stylus.
(UPDATE: the original
Google video
from HDNet itself seems to have returned; it works much better. There's also an unofficial
transcript.)
The short version: with the touchscreen equipment, the plant in Manila shipped machines with known faulty
touchscreens (of American manufacture!); with the punch-card ballots, according to many former employees
including some high in the company, the plant manager at Sequoia ordered the use of manifestly substandard
paper for cardstock, stock which demonstrably produces great numbers of defective chads even when punched with a
gang-punch (a hand-driven punch intended to punch every hole in a card).
According to Dan Rather, some people, including some of the former Sequoia employees interviewed, surmise that
the foreign owners of the plants that produced the substandard equipment and media may have realized that the
touchscreens were problematical, then deliberately used defective cardstock to drive down the reputation of the
punch-card technology so that electronic voting systems could still be profitably sold as replacements for the
older Votomatic (punch-card) systems.
Do I think it was, instead, some grand partisan conspiracy by the Bushists?
I don't know. I just don't know. The profit motive in a largely unsupervised international acquisition of voting
equipment could well exceed any interest the owners may have had in actual fair elections in the U.S. Perhaps
the Bushists, in stealing the 2000 election (I'm sorry, naysayers, but there is no other credible interpretation
of all available facts than that the presidential election of 2000 was stolen), were mere opportunists, using
this apparent bit of corporate malfeasance as a springboard. Or perhaps there was a conspiracy. I still haven't
replaced my broken plastic colander with a metal one like the one
Anya
wears as a helmet, so my brain may still be affected by those rays. I retort, you deride.
A couple more thoughts. First, Harris County, TX does not use touchscreen machines. Hart InterCivic's eSlate
machine may have other problems (possible security vulnerabilities as described by California researchers
recently), but a voter selects entries on the ballot using a sort of finger-dial. I do not know what happens to
my ballot after I cast it, but I've never seen problems of display of incorrect votes on the voting machine
itself. Second, in my opinion, there is only one practical solution to all of this: a return to paper ballots,
with a strict chain of custody of both marked and unmarked ballots, and a willingness by the public to allow...
and wait for... a hand-count, observed by representatives of all interested parties. Some people argue
intelligently that a reliable and secure e-voting system can in fact be designed and produced. I disagree. Your
mileage may vary. What is not disputable is that the entire span of vulnerabilities of paper ballots is known
from centuries of practice. The necessary precautions are also well-known.
Oh, and one final thought. I hope Karl Rove is satisfied with the result if indeed he is the one who rat-fucked
Dan Rather on the Bush service document matter. Let him take this documentary home with him when he spends
quality time with his family... until they measure him for a suit with a different kind of stripes.
Samantha and Tabitha care nothing for flashy jewelry, limiting their own attire to tasteful collars. Nor do
they care for rooms full of video games and old-fashioned mechanical games like the one with cranes that
allow a skilled player to retrieve a prize, such as a stuffed toy or flashy plastic jewelry.
But they often express a wish that I would stop with the
lights from the silvery box...
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Better the occasional faults of a government that lives
in a spirit of charity than the constant omissions of a
government frozen in the ice of its own indifference.
- FDR
I belong to the Democratic Party wing of the Democratic Party.
- Paul Wellstone
I am a Democrat without prefix, without suffix, and without apology.
- Sam Rayburn
Shamelessly borrowed from Bruce Schneier's blog
The 
... but if you practice a trade or work in an industry, and if there's a union available to you, you will likely
find it worthwhile to join it. Whether you are in a unionized industry or not, you have benefited from the
result of battles historically fought by unions... among them, the
lights from the silvery box...
