Ike Marches On - UPDATED

UPDATE 8 Friday about 8:30pm CT: (That last update was of course on Friday. Sorry about that.) I'm finally at Stella's, well-fed, settled in with too much stuff, and wondering if I thought of everything. Of course not! But for another few hours, the winds will be low enough that I can run back to my apartment if necessary to retrieve something. SciGuy says the storm will be worse than we hoped this afternoon. Galveston is getting hammered... drowned is more like it... already. Ike is drawing in some dry air, but it's probably too late to prevent its coming in as a Category 3, if only minimally. The NWS Graphical Forecast shows 4:00am gusts to 82 kt for Houston, about what we anticipated for speed at landfall, not when Ike reached Houston.

Still, we made our reasonable choice, and here we are. I think we'll be OK. Any place we might have gone... any place actually available to us... would have put us at risk at least as great as this. I expect we'll lose power during the night, so don't assume the worst if I don't check in right away.

UPDATE 7 Thurs. Friday about 4:20pm CT: This is the last post from the desktop computer. My apartment is secured (sort of) and I'm doing the last-minute packing to go to Stella's place in an hour or two. She has internet service comparable to mine, so I should still be able to post from there until I lose power or lose the connection.

I just watched the resident newsfool reporting from the Galveston seawall, and it looks really bad already. Why some people feel a need to be out there "reporting" when there's that much danger is beyond me. I suppose he will leave soon; the Causeway is still open and navigable. But those waves against the seawall are evidence that the storm surge will be really, really bad.

We anticipate TS force winds in a few hours (hard to believe as I glance outside; there's only a breeze) and the full force of the storm tomorrow morning.

Because we are at home, I do not anticipate having to move posting to the YDD Annex, but if I do so, I'll let you know in the comment thread linked below.

UPDATE 6 Friday about 10:00am CT: Gotta have some fun while we wait for this thing, so here is our substitute for a Friday cat post... not about one of Stella's girls, but about a firefighter who saves a cat by mouth-to-mouth resuscitation. It tasted "like fur," said firefighter Al Machado. The cat is a three-year-old tiger angora named Kiki. The burned house's former residents have been charged with arson.

The weather here? Cloudy-bright, some sunshine, no rain, utterly still. Houston is still Ike's target. Ike is dangerous because of its sheer size (at present it's only a Category 2, but much of the Texas coastline will be affected) and the likely storm surge. Again, the main danger at our specific location will be wind, not water. This waiting certainly is boring, but at least we have A/C and internet... after the storm, we probably won't be so comfortable.

UPDATE 5 Thurs. about 11:35pm CT: OK, we're as ready as we can be... not to say as ready as possible, just as ready as we poor weary souls can manage under the circumstances. I've gotten out of practice at this, and we're plenty tired, in part from carrying water (for whom? for us!) and removing wind chimes. Politics seems miles away at the moment, and all local political events this weekend were canceled and/or rescheduled. Now we just have to wait it out, whatever "it" turns out to be.

SciGuy tells us Ike is likely to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall, and less even than that as it arrives in Houston. He also reminds us that the average forecast error for landfall is about 70 miles, and that the forecast location of landfall has been moving eastward gradually; a landfall further east, even by a few miles, would be good for both Galveston and Houston (yeah, I know: bad for someone else). We'll know soon enough. Thanks to all of you who have been stopping by and offering supportive thoughts.

UPDATE 4 Thurs. about 4:45pm CT: We'll be riding it out in our apartments. Fortunately, hers and mine are only one building apart, and they're sturdy enough (and elevated enough) to have been through Alicia and Allison with no flooding and little damage. Why are we staying here? Stella's employer will allow only employees designated "essential" to stay in the building during the storm; I presume it's a matter of their insurance. Stella manages research projects, which I personally consider essential, but I can see how the world can go on without them for 24 or 48 hours.

In a way, I'm relieved. Moving even our minimal stuff over there, along with two cats, would have been a challenge, and I detest being in a place I don't really belong. "Who are you, and what are you doing here?" is not my favorite question, even when I have a good answer. And while there was a time that my appearance fit well enough in an office setting, I've, um, gone native in recent years...

We'll keep things packed overnight, against the possibility that things worsen so dramatically in that short time that we are forced to make an emergency evacuation. I consider that fairly unlikely. Although the forecast does not give me hope of greater relief from Ike than I've anticipated for a couple of days now, Ike's quirkiness may have led to slightly less danger for inland areas near its path. In any case, here I am, here Stella will be in a couple of hours, and here we and the Girls will stay until Ike passes through.

Well, actually, we still have to go out on Stella's patio to take down her 147 sets of wind chimes...

UPDATE 3 Thurs. about 1:00pm CT: Galveston, Brazoria and Matagorda (and many other places) are all now under mandatory evacuation orders. The last I heard (four hours ago?), officials were still encouraging Houston residents who are not in the surge zone to shelter in place, to free up the highways for those who really have to evacuate.

We are out of the surge zone, both officially and from prior experience. Harris County Flood Control District says explicitly that the surge will not affect the bayou system's ability to drain the rainwater; the system is expected to be adequate to do so except for a couple of small bayous that are mostly in the southeast part of the county. HCFC is not typically calm about these things, so I'm taking them at their word. Wind is still thought to be the primary danger.

I still don't have official word on sheltering at Stella's workplace. But I used the extra time to go to the nearest supermarket (now that was scary!) to buy two more 24-packs of bottled water (we already had four on hand) and two gallon jugs of water for the kitties (again, there were already some on hand). Oh, and most important of all, two bags of kitty litter... if we tried to go without, the kitties would surely "go" without!

I have mixed feelings about sheltering away from home. There's no doubt Stella's workplace is a safer place to be, but these apartments are sturdy... 35 years old, no floods even in Alicia and Allison, recently maintained roof, etc. I might have unmixed feelings, though, if Ike came through as a strong Category 3 or worse. But it's still possible that Stella's employer will remove that option anyway; I'm waiting for word, meanwhile packing as if to go.

UPDATE 2 Wed. about 11:11pm CT: Despite my best hopes, the current forecast (which may change several times in the next day) shows Ike pointed for a landfall at Freeport... about the worst possible spot for Houston (not to mention Freeport!). We're investigating the possibility of "evacuating" within the city, possibly to Stella's workplace, which is a major institution in a huge building. (Many large buildings in Houston were upgraded after Alicia in 1983 to withstand stronger storms.) A lot depends on whether they will allow her to bring the cats in on an emergency basis. If we do that, I may or may not get a chance to post here before we pack up and leave. It's not impossible, depending on available net connections, that I'll be able to post on the YDD Annex from somewhere. In any case, we intend to be safe... somewhere... all four of us. I'll check in when I can.

UPDATE Wed. about 4:00pm CT: Things don't look too good here in H-town. A couple of hours ago I monitored an extended chat on Berger's blog, the second session in which readers tapped his deep knowledge of tropical weather specifically in our local context. It seems the next few days could be at least unpleasant, and possibly dangerous.

All the models have shifted somewhat to the north, and one of them (at least) points right at Houston now, or even a little bit northeast of here. Any landfall up the coast from Matagorda Bay will deliver us at least tropical storm weather, and Berger says his gut feeling is that there's about a one in three chance of Ike's coming straight here. Nobody's venturing to guess intensity with any confidence, but if Ike comes straight here, it looks as if Houston itself, which is 50 or 60 miles inland, may get 100+ mph sustained winds.

We are not in the storm surge zone, nor is flooding anticipated in our area, so high winds are our primary danger if Ike does come here. Landfall probably begins in the wee hours Friday-into-Saturday, so there is some time to observe, prepare and act, but I've heard plywood is already scarce for those who want to board up windows. No, I don't do that; I doubt the apartment owners would tolerate that sort of modification. I move valuable stuff back away from windows, and move my person into a windowless, relatively well-protected bathroom at the height of a storm.

Everyone is being advised not to evacuate unless they are either in the storm surge zone, are officially advised to evacuate (e.g., the west end of Galveston Island and several coastal areas), or have some other compelling reason. With luck, that will avoid needless clogging of the evacuation routes for people who actually have to evacuate. At present, it looks as if most of us will ride it out. I can't help wondering how much this course of action was influenced by the nightmare of the evacuation of Houston for Rita in 2005. In theory, they've worked out some of the bugs since then, but I'd be glad not to have to test that theory myself.

Stella's father and his wife live about 25 or 30 miles north of here. According to Berger's chat, people out there, in an extreme case, would see no worse than tropical storm force winds. That's one fewer thing to worry about, though the lack of emergency medical service during a storm concerns us a bit, even if it's only a tropical storm.

And that's the news from Misbegotten Bayou.

Original post:

I may be in the path, because the uncertainties are so large. But I'm going to take Eric Berger's advice from earlier this evening...

Hurricane Ike; Time to watch and be wary, not worry.

8:00 p.m. UPDATE: Ike remains a 75-mph hurricane for now, though I would expect re-intensification to begin tonight.

Some of this evening's models have shifted slightly southward, but we're not seeing the significant shifts that happened yesterday, and the highest area of risk remains from just south of Corpus Christi northward to Houston and Galveston.

At this point, however, all of the Texas coast need remain wary of Ike.

     ...

Hmmm...

Here's a little song I stole;
I hope you learn to sing it whole:
Don't worry...
Be wary.

Well, OK; I'll try. The experts say we should know considerably more by sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening. Until then, all I can do is, um, be wary.

As of this afternoon, there was no serious talk of evacuating Houston, at least not the part inside Loop 610 where we live. Other parts of surrounding counties, and of course other parts of Texas down the coast toward Corpus Christi, are not so fortunate; buses are being positioned to assist in any necessary evacuation. A National Guard task force of 7500 troops has been formed to assist in rescue and recovery after the storm, wherever it hits.

As always, I recommend the blog of the Houston Chronicle's SciGuy, who is science editor Eric Berger. I learned a great deal about the specifics of this storm by monitoring a 1.5-hour chat session; another one takes place tomorrow at 2:00pm CT. (Note: Eric is a saint for putting up with the very, very few self-preoccupied troll-like idiots who cannot resist defacing a serious exchange. But he handles them with grace and humor, as I never could. And Berger is full of local information one could not find elsewhere without a staff of researchers, which he no doubt has.)

Political blogging will continue as events permit. If necessary, i.e., if I'm forced to blog away from home, I'll probably move things to the YDD Annex. But I'll give you notice before I do that. Please check here first.

Steve
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Sarah Palin, Muslim Fundamentalist?

No, not literally. But Juan Cole (Salon; get the site pass) argues convincingly that Palin's brand of Christian fundamentalism, as evidenced by her determination to inject her religious beliefs into public policy in ways that will affect us all, is not materially different from that of the most extreme of Muslim fundamentalists in some Middle Eastern governments. Cole outlines a distressing number of direct parallels between Palin's intended policies and those of the more extremist Muslim leaders in Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran, among others. Here is a paragraph from Cole's conclusion:

Palin has a right to her religious beliefs, as do fundamentalist Muslims who agree with her on so many issues of social policy. None of them has a right, however, to impose their beliefs on others by capturing and deploying the executive power of the state. The most noxious belief that Palin shares with Muslim fundamentalists is her conviction that faith is not a private affair of individuals but rather a moral imperative that believers should import into statecraft wherever they have the opportunity to do so. That is the point of her pledge to shape the judiciary. Such a theocratic impulse is incompatible with the Founding Fathers' commitment to tolerance and democracy, which is why they forbade the government to "establish" or officially support any particular religion or denomination.

Please read his well-documented argument, following links if they interest you.

I read a statement somewhere this morning that the attention paid to Palin is the success of a deliberate campaign of distraction and obfuscation by the McCain campaign. I could not disagree more: Palin is at the very center of the conflict many of us would experience in a McCain presidency. If McCain becomes president, legally or by theft, the likelihood of a Palin presidency in the relatively near future increases dramatically. It matters what policies she would pursue. It matters what regulations she would establish; just look at what Bush has already done through federal regulations. And especially, it matters what judges and Supreme Court Justices she would appoint. Palin is very much an issue in this election, and people need to know what kind of president she would be. Her avowed intent to insert her religious beliefs... specifics, not merely generally accepted warm fuzzy feelings... into our government means that her fundamentalism is itself a legitimate campaign issue.

Steve
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Zapped For Being Black?

Houston Chronicle:

City controller calls for more Taser oversight
By ROMA KHANNA Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle
Sept. 8, 2008, 11:34AM

Although Tasers have been an effective tool for Houston police, officers have used the stuns guns most often on black suspects and the stun guns have not lead to a reduction in shootings of civilians, according to an audit released today.

The audit, overseen by Controller Annise Parker, examined some 1,400 incidents in which Houston police officers used Tasers during a two and a half year period.

     ...

The audit was initiated last year as public criticism of police Taser use swelled, prompting calls for tighter restrictions on Taser use, if not a moratorium.

Parker's team offered a series of recommendations to better monitor Taser use including the suggestions that HPD study each incident in which an officer shocks a suspect more than four times and that HPD track officers who use their Tasers frequently. The audit found that two HPD officers have used their Tasers more than 13 times — far more than any other officers on the force.

     ...

Parker is, among other things, a CPA, and has been a very conscientious city controller. I have confidence she has the skills and attitude to do such a study properly. If she says Houston police are zapping blacks more often than they are zapping other people, you can take it as fact.

I know cops do not like to fill out paperwork, and I understand and identify with that distaste. But Tasers are largely unexplored territory, and until more is known about the dangers... which seem fairly great on initial inspection of incidents nationwide over the few years Tasers have been in use... it is certainly appropriate to keep track of incidents both in total and by individual officer.

Think of it this way: what would be done with an officer who had used his or her gun to shoot suspects in the field on more than 13 occasions? We suspect Tasers are less deadly than pistols, but what do we know for sure? It's time to, um, bite the bullet and do the tedious work of keeping track of Taser use and consequences.

And formal training for officers on interracial communications is also appropriate.

Steve
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Our Deferential Press

Eric Kleefeld of TPM:

McCain Campaign: No Palin Interviews Until She's Treated With "Deference"

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis told Fox News this morning that Sarah Palin won't be doing any media interviews "until the point in time when she'll be treated with respect and deference," and when Palin would be "comfortable" doing it. So far in this campaign, Palin has taken only one question, from a gushing Alaska reporter: "Governor, we feel like we're losing you -- are you still going to be there for Alaska?"

(Emphasis mine.)

My mind immediately ran to a song from Gilbert and Sullivan's Mikado:

Defer,
Defer,
To the Lord High Executioner!
Defer,
Defer,
To the noble lord,
To the noble lord,
To the Lord High Executioner!

A word to young folks out there: I remember a day in which the American press and media did not defer to anybody. And they damned well shouldn't. In theory at least, we don't have royalty in this country. Palin is a politician; the media owes it to the public to hold her feet to the fire about every issue of public significance. "Deference" is for absolute monarchs. Remember Nixon's herald trumpets? Is that where we're headed once again?

Glenn Greenwald has a few things to say about our press corp's failure to do its job. Of the upcoming ABC interview by Charlie Gibson of Gov. Palin, Greenwald says this:

It's not prescience when you simply describe the bleeding obvious. If I were a McCain adviser and wanted to have Palin sit with someone who is perceived as a "journalist" while knowing that no damage could possibly occur, I'd pick Charlie Gibson, too. There are many, many other equally good alternatives, but when it comes to wretched passivity and sycophantic establishment worship, the former "Good Morning America" host -- whose career was built on oozing amiability and inoffensiveness -- is as good as it gets.

So the candidate gets to choose her interviewer. Does she also get a list of the questions in advance? or does she perhaps get to specify the questions herself?

Freedom of the press predates the republic, but apparently there is no possibility that it will outlast it. Today's press corp is an utter embarrassment to a once thriving democratic society.

Steve
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Sunday Miscellany

• It's Sunday. I don't typically watch the weekly TV lineup, but I understand from Crooks and Liars that the candidates will appear... Barack Obama, Joe Biden, John McCain and Sarah Palin (oops! Sarah must be in Dick Cheney's secure undisclosed location!).

  Can someone please offer even the most minimal justification why a relatively unknown GOP vice presidential candidate should be allowed to hide out on the first Sunday of her candidacy? That's ridiculous, and I'm sure the hosts on Press the Meat, Deface the Nation, etc. will all remark on and object strongly to her absence. Yeah, and Hell will freeze over today, too.

• WWSB: What Would Sarah Ban? asks Christy Hardin Smith. After citing the three occasions (three!) on which Sarah Palin publicly referenced removing books from the collection of the Wasilla library, Christy points out that the ALA's Banned Book Week begins later this month, and suggests that it be used as an opportunity to quiz Gov. Palin on just which books she wants to see banned.

  If Palin ends up veep, or, Dog forbid, president, it's going to be a banner year.

• Jobless in America? As of August, 6.1 percent of Americans are jobless, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That number was 5 percent in April and 5.7 percent in July. This quote struck me particularly:

  “The debate about whether or not this is a recession is foolish,” said Robert Barbera, chief economist at the Investment Technology Group. “This is a recession.”

  Any questions? Actually, even though I haven't worked for a long time, I'm not technically unemployed, because I haven't registered as unemployed, applied for unemployment compensation or seriously looked for work, mainly for health reasons. But when I do look for work, it's going to be tough to find it.

• Hurricane Ike has the whole blessed Gulf Coast in its sights, and because there is no obvious steering influence at the moment, no one knows just where it will land. At the moment, Houston is right in the center of the tracking models:

  ---

  

  ---

  Who knows what Ike will really do. But if it comes here, and if it is as large and powerful as it is now when it makes landfall, we're getting outta here.

  ---

  UPDATE around 5:30pm: the above map of the models is already completely out of date. Please go visit the Weather Underground tropical weather page for the latest.

Steve
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Saturday Signs

Over on Westheimer, near a bookstore we frequent, there's a perfectly decent family Chinese restaurant. But I'll let them tell you about their food...

Steve
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Friday Cookie Jar Blogging

Another of Stella's kitty ceramics...

Steve
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9/11 Taboo R.I.P.

I don't often reproduce an entire post, but Sasha Issenberg's on the Boston Globe's Political Intelligence blog contains only three sentences, all essential:

ST. PAUL -- One of the most enduring taboos in American politics, the airing of graphic images from the September 11 attacks in a partisan context, died today. It was nearly seven years old.

The informal prohibition, which had been occasionally threatened by political ads in recent years, was pronounced dead at approximately 7:40 CST, when a video aired before delegates at the Republican National Convention included slow-motion footage of a plane striking the World Trade Center, the towers' subsequent collapse, and smoke emerging from the Pentagon.

The September 11 precedent was one of the few surviving campaign-season taboos. It is survived by direct comparisons of one's opponents to Hitler.

In other news, Karl Rove has scheduled the Godwin's Law violation for next week, unless Hurricane Ike enters the Gulf and visits New Orleans...

Afterthought: last night, during Palin's speech, Stella remarked on the appearance of an image of the Liberty Bell in the background behind Gov. Palin. I replied that the parallel should be obvious.

Steve
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Unfuckingbelievable: 'Uppity'

The Hill:

Westmoreland calls Obama ‘uppity'
By Mike Soraghan
Posted: 09/04/08 03:07 PM [ET]

Georgia Republican Rep. Lynn Westmoreland used the racially-tinged term "uppity" to describe Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama Thursday.

Westmoreland was discussing vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin's speech with reporters outside the House chamber and was asked to compare her with Michelle Obama.

"Just from what little I’ve seen of her and Mr. Obama, Sen. Obama, they're a member of an elitist-class individual that thinks that they're uppity," Westmoreland said.

Asked to clarify that he used the word “uppity,” Westmoreland said, “Uppity, yeah.”

     ...

"Uppity, yeah." Any more questions on who these people really are, deep down inside?

You'll have to forgive me... I'm skipping McLame's speech. I've had all I can take for a couple of days, and I'm sure there'll be no shortage of fawning tributes instant analyses by SCLM reporters and some worthwhile commentary by other bloggers. Let me know what happens.

Steve
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Palin's Speech: A Quick Note - UPDATED

I watched Sarah Palin's speech with the sound off and closed captioning on. My reaction has much in common with that of SFGate's editor who wrote this:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin left many unanswered questions last night in accepting the Republican nomination for vice president. No speech, no matter how impressive - and hers was, delivered with both verve and vigor - can put to rest the serious questions that are being raised about the extent of her experience and the extremism of her views on myriad issues.

The plainspoken eloquence of the speech left little doubt about why Sarah Palin is so popular in Alaska and a rising star in American politics. She proved she can be uplifting and she can connect with a punch.

Palin did not flinch in taking on the Democratic nominee, Sen. Barack Obama, in a forceful way. She chided his experience as "a community organizer" and his record in the U.S. Senate. She contrasted the experience of a "season as a gifted speaker" with the "lifetime of achievement" of her running mate.

     ...

The irony here, of course, is that hers was a purely political speech. No issues were actually addressed... none. A catalog of Republican talking points was delivered, very well I must admit (to the extent that crap can be presented artfully). It was red meat for the base, but it is very difficult for me to see how it was in any way intended to address, say, independents. Nothing at all was said about Palin's social conservative views... opposition to abortion even in cases of rape or incest, her introduction of religious cant into discussions of war, her attempts to remove library books because their content did not suit her "Christian" views, etc. There is a lot more to say about Gov. Palin than was revealed in this speech... and I am depending on Obama's campaign staff to say at least some of it. (For the record, none of what I am thinking of has anything to do with her family life. However, her possible abuse of power as governor in "troopergate" does come to mind...)

And honestly... any former Hillary supporter who flipped to McCain/Palin in response to this speech must not have thought things through very thoroughly. People do not, by and large, vote their gonads, and that's about all Palin has in common with Hillary.

Is Palin a bad person? No, I'm not saying that at all. Nor am I saying McCain was not, in his day, a courageous prisoner of war (though one really should read ellroon's post, and watch the video, about one of his compatriots). But neither POW status nor the ability to be a superb soccer mom, small-town mayor or even governor of a state with miniscule population and great wealth qualifies one to be... possibly, given McCain's age... President of the United States. And Gov. Palin is not thus qualified.

I am at a wonderful age. I am young enough to appreciate a woman's pleasant packaging (Stella's, for instance) when it is relevant to her relationship to me, and old enough mostly to ignore such good looks when her role in my life is that of potential commander-in-chief. In the world of government, as the old saying goes, form follows function. I am more convinced than ever that Gov. Palin could not function effectively as president any more than could the much older top of the GOP ticket. Indeed... I believe she would be a disaster as president.

UPDATE: here are a couple of myth-v.-reality lists about Palin's speech:

• AP: Attacks, Praise Stretch Truth At GOP Convention (Huffington Post)
• Palin v. Reality (Mark Kleiman, Reality-Based Community)

(H/T Fallenmonk for a link to the HuffPo list. And if I understand Mark Kleiman correctly, the second list is a rush from the Obama campaign.)

Steve
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Palin's 'Tasks From God'

Here's another one that needs scarcely any comment:

Palin: Iraq war 'a task that is from God'
In address to church, Palin called Iraq war and building of Alaska pipeline 'God's will'

GENE JOHNSON
AP News
Sep 03, 2008 18:23 EST

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin told ministry students at her former church that the United States sent troops to fight in the Iraq war on a "task that is from God."

In an address last June, the Republican vice presidential candidate also urged ministry students to pray for a plan to build a $30 billion natural gas pipeline in the state, calling it "God's will."

     ...

(Emphasis mine.)

Hey, religious voters out there who may be inclined to be sympathetic with Gov. Palin... do you believe war is a "task that is from God"? How about building a natural gas pipeline; is that "God's will"?

Steve
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Losing Our Ice

If this doesn't scare you, either you aren't paying attention, or you've let your greed and/or ideology overwhelm your concern for survival:

Arctic ice shelf splits; ice loss 10x expected this summer
By Tim De Chant | Published: September 03, 2008 - 01:23PM CT

The landscape surrounding Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic is a shadow of its former self, thanks in part to last month's departure of 55 square kilometers of the Markham Ice Shelf. Ellesmere Island anchors one of only five remaining ice shelves in the Arctic, although how long it will retain that distinction remains to be seen. Including the Markham loss, Ellesmere Island has now lost 10 times more shelf ice this summer than scientists predicted on July 30.

Located just west of Greenland, Ellesmere Island is Canada’s most northerly landmass. Prior to the 20th Century, it was covered by one continuous 9,000-square-kilometer ice shelf. The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the rest of the planet, though, over the past 100 years, and Ellesmere's ice shelf soon split into five distinct entities. In summer 2008 alone, Ellesmere Island's other ice shelves, the Ward Hunt and the Serson. have lost 43 square kilometers and 120 square kilometers respectively. The Markham split is the latest loss, leaving Ellesmere with only around 800 square kilometers of shelf ice.

Arctic sea ice has been disappearing at near record pace this summer. While the ice retreat has traditionally slowed in early August, this year's downward trend appeared unflappable in those telling few weeks. Scientists are concerned other cracks in the largest remaining shelf, the Ward Hunt, will continue the trend over the next few years.

     ...

I can't add much to that. Is this the much-discussed "tipping point"? Stay tuned; you may not have to wait long to find out.

Steve
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Gesture To My Opponent

In a gesture of bipartisanship, I have created a new campaign button for our opponents. Don't you think they should get the L out?

Steve
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Time To Bomb Iran?

After all, the election is coming up soon, the neocons are in charge, and McCain wants to do it anyway. From the Telegraph UK:

Dutch withdraw spy from Iran because of 'impending US attack'
The Dutch intelligence service has pulled an agent out of an "ultra-secret operation" spying on Iran's military industry because spymasters in Netherlands believe a United States air attack was imminent.

By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels
Last Updated: 9:24AM BST 01 Sep 2008

According to reports in the newspaper De Telegraaf, the country's intelligence service, the AIVD, has stopped an espionage operation aimed at infiltration and sabotage of the weapons industry in Iran.

"The operation, described as extremely successful, was halted recently in connection with plans for an impending US air attack on Iran," said the report.

"Targets would also be bombed which were connected with the Dutch espionage action."

"Well placed" sources told the paper that a top agent had been recalled recently "because the US was thought to be making a decision within weeks to attack Iran with unmanned aircraft".

"Information from the AIVD operation has in recent years been shared with the American CIA secret service."

Brig Gen Seyyed Massoud Jazayeri, deputy chief of the Iranian armed forces, warned at the weekend that military attacks against Iran would trigger a Third World War.

     ...

"Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran..."

Will I sound too jaded if I say this is precisely what one would expect of the Bushists on behalf of McCain? For some people, there's never enough havoc in the world...

(H/T Avedon.)

Steve
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It Begins

I say, "it begins," but the seeds of the police violence in St. Paul were planted at least as long ago as the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago. But it is still chilling to see police in riot gear, loaded for bear, marching in a military manner, arresting nearly 300 people yesterday alone (I don't know about today) including Democracy Now! host Amy Goodman, her producer and a cameraman and two of her producers on trumped-up charges, and... most disturbingly... gratuitously shoving people to the ground, bloodying noses and generally making a mockery of the concept of free speech in a public venue an open society. Yes, there was some criminal behavior, as there often is at otherwise peaceful events: no, that does not justify police action against ordinary protesters and (most astonishingly) credentialed journalists.

Glenn Greenwald has a summary with running updates, photos and videos from St. Paul. The scenes depicted range from the most mundane of peaceful protests to shots of police in riot gear behaving in ways clearly intended to... to terrorize people; there, I said it. The police were heavily armed; some of them were engaging in violence, and all of them in projecting threats toward unarmed people not pursuing any criminal activity. In all the video I watched today, I saw not one single violent act committed by a protester... not one. But the police were not merely prepared for violence... they were, to all appearances, spoiling for it.

These are not "peace officers" in any useful sense of the phrase. Their task has nothing to do with preserving the peace. In my opinion, if you show up at a primarily peaceful protest in riot gear, you are clearly looking for a riot. Is this where we are headed as a nation? Are we now a "security" state?

ADDENDUM: here is the episode of Democracy Now! on which Amy Goodman and the two producers discuss their coverage, the police action, their arrest and how they were treated. The segment is about 10 minutes or so 8:40 into the show. Be sure to choose one of the video versions, and set down your coffee before you view it.

Steve
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Michael Moore On Gustav, McCain, Palin

Michael Moore, with assists from Christopher Hayes of The Nation and Jonathan Stein of MoJoBlog (back in April), shows how the Republican Party is using the people of New Orleans and Palin's daughter as props in the political drama. There's too much in Moore's post to summarize; please read all of it, and follow the links (two of which are reproduced above). There's no "shorter Moore," but here's something that struck me:

The possibility of a storm (a storm that never hit New Orleans, and was no longer a hurricane by last night) was enough for McCain to essentially cancel most of the first day of the convention. Cut and run? The AP reported yesterday that conventions have always been held when the nation was facing perilous moments. Right smack in the middle of World War II, the Republicans and the Democrats both held full conventions. Thousands of Americans were being killed every week. The Republicans held their convention in Chicago less than two weeks after D-Day. No one faulted them for that. In fact, it made Americans feel good that, no matter what happens, NOTHING stops Democracy. No retreat, no surrender...

OK, so Moore doesn't live in hurricane country, or he wouldn't say Gustav "never hit New Orleans," but the rest of his point couldn't be stronger: abandoning or reducing a convention in St. Paul because of a storm on the Gulf Coast has purely political motivations, and has nothing to do with concern for Americans' safety. Big surprise, right?

Moore also reinforces the pretty much universal assessment that Palin's daughter should not be made to suffer because her mother is running for veep. Inevitably, she will suffer... and not because of "liberal bloggers." Moore's point is that while families should be off-limits, the topics that arise in this case are, apart from any specific instance, very much at issue: abortion, abstinence-only sex education, and, as Moore put it, "Gov. Palin's desire to make abortion illegal for anyone who is raped, a victim of incest or who may die if they bring the fetus to term." The McCain campaign must not be allowed to use a legitimate privacy issue to stifle discussion of these critical matters. But of course they'll try to do just that. I suppose it's the one arena in which they can't try to suppress Democratic campaigning by using a noun, a verb, and "POW."

(Minor change of wording made after initial posting.)

Steve
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Waiting, Waiting...

Gustav is hammering Louisiana right now; Houston, on the other hand, still has cloudy-bright skies, no rain, and only a mild breeze at the moment. In my youth, I thought I could never be bored if I had time on my hands to do all the things I wanted to do... but waiting for tropical weather and the subsequent flooding is not what I had in mind.

The good news is that current projections are that the New Orleans levees will hold. The bad news is that it's not over yet:

Levee experts cautioned against celebrating early, since early reports during hurricanes Katrina and Betsy mistakenly said flooding was not a problem. A hurricane's winds can push surge shoreward for hours after a hurricane makes landfall.

Some of the levees, though not cracked, were nonetheless topped; the Houston Chronicle has AP video from its main page (they've cleverly prevented direct links from offsite).

Still, Gustav was less powerful on landfall than expected (category 2 instead of 4), and apparently did not land in the worst place possible (unless you happened to be there). No doubt this is due to the effectiveness of Republican prayer. Hey, GOPers... no matter what you do now, you own Katrina.

In Houston, we're supposed to get our wind and rain tonight, with rain worsening into the middle of the week. The wind is forecast to be really mild. The rain... we'll have to wait and see.

UPDATE: the blog Weather Nerd has good coverage of the status of New Orleans.

Happy Labor Day from your favorite member in good standing of AFM Local 65-699.

Steve
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Gustav And Houston

SciGuy (Eric Berger) comes through with specifics on what Gustav is likely to do in my neck of the woods. Here's the short version: Gustav arrives here this evening, with winds gusting to 30 mph, subsiding by early Wednesday. Most of Houston gets less than an inch of rain... unless the track sags to the southwest, which some models suggest, in which case we may get 2-4 inches.

Berger addresses likely outcomes for several other nearby places and for New Orleans, of which he concludes,

I believe, at this hour, that New Orleans will escape catastrophic damage. But I wish I could make that prediction with more certainty. It's going to be a very close call.

Berger, who if I recall correctly is science editor for the Houston Chronicle, is a consistently good source of tropical weather information. Locals please take note if you're not already aware of his blog linked above.

Steve
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Selected Links To Recent Posts

 
Click any permalink below to go to the original article on a previous page. Click a comment link below to add a comment to the original article. Your comment will be noticed, by the YDD at least: HaloScan has a page allowing me to view recent comments, no matter which post they refer to. Some very recent posts may be included in their entirety.

Before The Storm

A moment ago here in beautiful Houston, the sun was shining through patchy clouds, there were occasional isolated drops of rain, and there was hardly any wind. The traffic web site doesn't show any great exodus on the westbound or northbound freeways. In the 4:00pm CDT public advisory, hurricane warnings have been extended westward along the coast to just east of High Island (look for that little bay or "notch" south and east of Houston). It's hard to believe we're going to have real weather here within 18 to 24 hours, but I think it's likely. I'm ever so grateful I don't live in New Orleans, and greatly concerned for the well-being of anyone there who decided not to evacuate.

Stella and I and The Girlz are as ready as we reasonably want to be. No one here in Houston is panicking. Everybody has stocked up on food and drink; we spent our last excursion buying a watch battery and browsing a bookstore. (Well, if you consider a Borders a bookstore... hey, it's close, and Stella had coupons.) I'll post occasionally for as long as we have power, which may be straight through. If you are in the way of this monster, please be safe; we'll be thinking of you.

Steve
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The Calm

It's almost eerie. The Houston sky is cloudy, but where I live, there's not a drop of rain, or a breath of wind. The city is unsettlingly still, considering that Gustav is once again in the Gulf of Mexico. One would never know it from glancing at the sky.

Oh, we'll get weather from Gustav, all right, but the current word is that there is about a 5 percent chance that Houston will see hurricane-force winds... let alone the high Category 4 winds which Gustav is generating at the moment. Houston is liable to see flooding instead, sometime around midweek. Houston, as a city, knows about floods; look up Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. But we are accustomed to floods in summer, and except for a few fools who come to grief trying to negotiate underpasses, few of us even lose cars in the floods typical here. (Now watch this one prove me wrong.) There hasn't been a lot of rain lately, so the ground should be in good shape to absorb the water. And absent a surprise course change, Gustav's storm surge will probably go elsewhere. (Yes, we're 50 miles inland. Yes, a sufficiently powerful hurricane can send a dangerous storm surge to Houston.)

Gustav, though, is huge, powerful and moving fast... and apparently headed for a landfall in a couple of days on the Louisiana coast. New Orleans is at risk. Yes, long-suffering New Orleans, with levees still not repaired to adequate functionality; New Orleans, built on a 10-foot-deep bowl; New Orleans, victim of presidential contempt and neglect. FEMA's director says everything is hunky-dory, and from a GOP perspective, that's probably true. As you know, NOLA is being evacuated right now, and I hope all the residents save themselves. My thoughts are with them in the coming days.

And this is not the last storm of the season. Look at the NHC's main page; it appears as if the forecasters took colored pencils and doodled on the map. There's always one more storm to worry about.

I am getting too old for this!

Steve
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Saturday Signs

Steve
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Painful Observation - DOGGEREL!

Steve
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Friday Classic Nap Blogging

Steve
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Sarah Palin: Everything Obama Hoped For

Steve
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Obama's Acceptance Speech

Steve
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Tracking Gustav

Steve
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Land Of The Free?

Steve
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With Sprinkles On Top

Steve
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Too Much Truth

Steve
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In Memoriam M.A.

Steve
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How Bad Is The Vice Presidency?

Steve
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McCain Campaign Stupidity

Steve
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Miscellany

Steve
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Really Bad Pun

Steve
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Obama Chooses Biden

Steve
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Saturday Signs

Steve
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Truth In Headlines

Steve
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Friday Rocker Blogging - UPDATED

Steve
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Many McMansions

Steve
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It's The Economy, Smarty!

Steve
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Riches Beyond My Wildest Dreams

Steve
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Typo Of The Week

John Amato of Crooks and Liars has it, and he has the screen shot and text copy off the wire to prove it: AP referred to Joe Lieberman as the "Democratic vice presidential prick in 2000" (emphasis mine). Couldn't have said it better myself!

Steve
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Drum, Benen Moving

Steve
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Resuming My Partisan Status

Steve
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Krugman On Georgia And Globalization

Steve
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Endangered Species, Redux

Steve
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Shoot First, Ask Questions Later

Steve
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Saturday Signs

Steve
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